Where Are The Arctic's Big Oil and Gas Deposits?

The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that 13% of the world's undiscovered technically recoverable oil, 30% of its undiscovered technically recoverable gas, and 20% of its undiscovered technically recoverable natural gas liquids, are in the Arctic.  Most of that gas is in Russia: Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (U.S.Geological Survey data released July 23, 2008):

Here's a map showing the location of the estimated undiscovered oil; the title is a little misleading.  Click on it to see a larger version.  The darker the green the more oil there is.  Alaska looks pretty good, and actually accounts for about a third of this undiscovered Arctic oil:

The two provinces in the central Arctic Ocean, the Eurasian Basin, with 1.3 billion barrels, and the Lomonosov-Makarov Basin, with 1.1 billion, are small parts of the picture.  This suggests to me that, to the extent the "race for Arctic oil" rhetoric is about the control of the central Arctic Ocean, it may be overblown.

This figure shows the locations of the big gas deposits.  Alaska does OK again, but look at the Russian deposits: the two dark red areas in Russia alone account for 58% of the estimated undiscovered gas.  The two areas in the Central Arctic Ocean account for less than 2% of the total.  A Geological Survey slide show at its site says that most estimated gas resources are on continental shelves rather than in UN Convention on the Law of the Sea areas.  Again, to the extent that the "race for the Arctic" is about gas, the rhetoric may be overblown.

It could take a while to get to develop all that Russian gas.  The Wall Street Journal story on the USGS report (Cold Comfort: Arctic Is Oil Hot Spot) says,

Yet there is little likelihood that much of Russia's Arctic wealth will be exploited any time soon. The country still has vast untapped fields onshore that are first in line to be developed.

Development would also be hampered by Russia's likely reluctance to let in foreign companies with experience developing oil and gas riches in hostile environments like the Arctic. Some firms have been allowed in, but only as junior partners of state-controlled Russian entities such as OAO Gazprom.

The situation could change. Neil McMahon, an oil analyst at Sanford Bernstein, said Russia will come under mounting pressure to sell offshore leases to Western companies and use the cash to boost investment in flagging domestic oil production.

Comments

[liquid natural gas]

Good informative post.Thanks for sharing the information with us ...

[small caps]

Hello,
As global warming gradually melts away the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, the oil and gas deposits buried in that inaccessible region are becoming a lot less theoretical to the five northern nations with claims to those riches...