It's common for stories on Arctic oil and gas to cite a 2000 US Geological Survey (USGS) estimate that 25% of the world's discovered oil and gas reserves may lie in the Arctic. For example: The Arctic: Oil's last frontier (Steve Hargreaves, CNN Money, October 25, 2006). Scott Borgerson cited the 25% figure in his article on the Arctic in Foreign Affairs this past March: Arctic Meltdown. But the USGS never said this.
The 25% figure is apparently based on a reporter's misinterpretation of the USGS report:USGS: 25% Arctic oil, gas estimate a reporter’s mistake (Alan Bailey, Petroleum News, October 21, 2007).
The purported USGS estimate was based on results from a review of seven oil and gas basins, large tracts of which lay outside of the Arctic Circle. The East Siberian Basin, which lay entirely outside of the Arctic Circle, contributed about nine percent. Without the East Siberian Basin, the total percentage within the Arctic Circle was 14%.
However, neither figure included estimates of undiscovered resources in many other basins north of the Arctic Circle, so the 14% could be an underestimate.
The energy consultants Wood McKenzie critiqued the 25% figure in 2006: US hopes for Arctic oil and gas bonanza set back by expert study (Sheila McNulty, November 2, 2006). Dan Cohen reported on this study for the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas in April 2007: Arctic Dreams.
The USGS is currently doing a more systematic survey of oil and gas resources in the Arctic. Here's the web page for the project: Arctic Undiscovered Petroleum Assessment. The USGS has already completed an assessment of the area off of Eastern Greenland. Dave Cohen compares the results from 2000 and 2007: An oil & gas Shangri-la in the Arctic? (Energy Bulletin, October 10, 2007). Between 2000 and 2007, the USGS estimates of undiscovered barrels of oil equivalents dropped by about half.
Edit July 2: News reports say that Donald Gautier of the USGS, speaking at the World Petroleum Congress in Madrid, said that there were 100 billion barrels of undiscovered oil in the Arctic. He compared this to a best guess of 500 billion barrels of oil in undisclosed fields worldwide: The Times of India. Hat tip to Arctic Focus (July 2). It this is reported accurately, Gautier seems to be implying that 20% of the undiscovered oil is in the Arctic.
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