Korea-U.S. FTA

About this blog:

This Weblog is maintained by Ben Muse, a resident of Alaska.  It is not affiliated with any organizations with positions on the Korea-U.S. FTA.

Almost Certainly No Action in the 17th National Assembly

It looks extremely unlikely that the current (17th) National Assembly will take action on the FTA before it comes to an end this month: Opposition Party Threatens to Scuttle FTA Over Beef (Dong-A Ilbo, May 12):

The main opposition United Democratic Party yesterday said it will refuse to ratify the free trade deal with the United States unless both countries renegotiate their beef import agreement.

With the extraordinary parliamentary session ending May 24, prospects seem dim for the free trade accord’s ratification within the term of the 17th National Assembly.

The party reached the decision in a joint meeting of floor leaders and members of the parliamentary unification, foreign affairs and trade committee. At the National Assembly, they discussed how to respond to the beef deal and the public hearing on the free trade deal set for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Floor leader Kim Hyo-seok said the agreement is not worth discussing without renegotiation of beef imports. “Let me clearly declare the position of the United Democratic Party: [the agreement] will not be put on the negotiating table,” he said.

“We will use this public hearing as an opportunity to delve into what went on between the Korean Embassy in Washington and the Agriculture Ministry April 10-11 (when the beef negotiations began), and how the ministry’s position on beef imports changed over those two days.”...

Beef and Ratification

Donald Kirk provides a useful overview of the turn the trade agreement debate has recently taken in Korea, where opponents of the trade agreement have been fanning public fears about the safety of U.S. beef (although he doesn't get into the assertions that Korean's are unusually susceptible to mad-cow disease): South Korean beef overcooked (Asia Times Online)

Korea's National Assembly to Hold Hearing Next Week

Korea's National Assembly will hold hearings on the trade agreement next week: Parliamentary committee to hold hearing on Korea-U.S. FTA (YOnhap News, May 6):

Korea Debates the Beef Agreement

The Korean agreement to reopen its market to U.S. beef has led to considerable concern about the potential for mad cow disease - especially following media reports that Koreans are genetically more susceptible to it than Americans: U.S. beef jitters grip South Korea (Lee Jong-Heon, UPI AsiaOnline, May 2).

Kang Ki-kab, National Assemblyman and member of the leftish Democratic Labor Party, has been touring the country to drum up opposition to the beef agreement and the trade agreement.  Here's his profile: 'Peasant legislator' fights against U.S. beef imports (Shin Hae-in, Yonhap News, May 2, 2008).

A parliamentary committee has agreed to hold a hearing on the beef agreement in May: Parliamentary committee to hold hearing on U.S. beef deal (The Hankyoreh, April 29)

The Lee Administration is making its own case: Lee Seeks to Quell Mad-Cow Scaremongers (Jung Sung-ki, The Korea Times, May 2, 2008):

President Lee Myung-bak expressed concern Friday that the U.S. beef safety issue was being politicized by the opposition parties and progressive civic groups amid whirling rumors among the public about the dangers of mad cow disease.

Lee directed his Cabinet ministers to come up with comprehensive measures to publicize the truth and myths about the safety of American beef, presidential spokesman Lee Dong-kwan said....

Congressional Prospects

Victoria McGrane reviews the prospects for Congressional approval: Future uncertain for U.S.-Korea FTA (Politico, April 29) and surveys the parties ranged on either side of the debate.  Much of the emphasis is on the auto industry.

What Does the KORUS FTA Mean for Korean IP Law?

Eui In Hwang, Yoo Geun Lim and Ji Hyun Kim of Bae, Kim and Lee list the key implications of the Korea-U.S. trade agreement for Korean law dealing with patents, trademarks, copyright, and judicial and administrative procedures related to intellectual property law: South Korea: Prospective Changes In The Korean Intellectual Property Law Pursuant To The Korea - US Free Trade Agreement (April 23).

Korea's National Assembly Meets

Korea's National Assembly has begun a final session to consider a number of pieces of legislation, including the trade agreement: Parliamentary session opens amid FTA tension (Shin Hae-in, Yonhap News, April 25).  The Lee Administration hopes to get the trade agreement passed; opposition parties apparently hope to use the session as a forum to criticize the recent beef deal.

Lee to Meet Assembly Leaders

President Lee has asked for a meeting with leaders of both key parties in the National Assembly to brief them on his summits in the U.S. and Japan, and to make the case for the Assembly to take up the trade agreement in May: Lee to meet Assembly leaders Thursday over FTA (Yoo Cheong-mo, Yonhap News, April 23):

The UDP and the FTA

Back in Seoul following his summit with the U.S. President, Korean President Lee is calling for a special session of the National Assembly in May to ratify the trade agreement: Lee urges parliament to approve KORUS FTA in May (Korea.net, April 22).  Assembly elections were just held on April 9, and Lee's party won a majority in the new Assembly.  But that Assembly won't meet until June.

U.S. Textile Industry Objections to the Trade Agreement

James Morrisey, Washington correspondent for Textile World, notes (Korea Beef Concession Not Enough To Clear The Proposed FTA, April 22):

US textile manufacturers are opposed to the Korean agreement because Korea has a large, well-developed textile industry that already exports a significant amount of textiles and clothing to the United States, and unlike the case with some other FTAs, they do not see any market opportunities for US products. They also are concerned that the agreement, as currently written, does not provide for effective Customs enforcement. They point out that the Korean agreement could undercut some of the benefits of the Central America-Dominican Republic, Andean nation and North America FTAs, which they do feel are beneficial to US textile manufacturers.

Congressional Democrats Remain Unenthusiastic

On Thursday and Friday Korea and the U.S. reached agreement on two issues related to, but not part, of the trade agreement: Korean restrictions on U.S. beef imports, and Korean eligibility to participate in the U.S. visa waiver program.  This should eliminate an important barrier to Congressional consideration of the trade agreement, and should improve the atmospherics in both countries

However, Congressional Democrats still don't seem unduly enthusiastic:

Visa Waiver Agreement

The U.S. and Korea reached an agreement on U.S. visa waivers for Korean citizens: MOU signed to allow South Koreans visa-free travel to US (AFP, April 18):

Korea Reopens Beef Market

Korea has agreed to reopen its beef market.  Gregg Hitt reports for the Wall Street Journal: U.S., South Korea Announce Deal To End Ban on U.S. Beef Exports (April 18):

Is a Beef Deal Imminent?

Korean and U.S. negotiators began meeting last Friday.  Today's Chosun Ilbo suggests a deal is imminent: Korea, U.S. Close to Beef Agreement (April 17, 2008).

Beef Concessions for Visa Waivers?

Kim Yon-se reports that President Lee may offer to open Korea's beef market in exchange for Korean access to the U.S. visa waiver program: Lee to Link US Beef Import to Visa Waiver (Korea Times, April 16):

Don't Expect Beef Concessions at Next Week's Summit

Evan Ramstad, who reports on Korea for the Wall Street Journal, says the U.S. shouldn't expect concessions on beef from Korea in next week's summit meeting between Presidents Lee and Bush: Seoul Unlikely to End U.S. Beef Ban (April 11).   

Key U.S. legislators have made it clear for a long time that Congress isn't going to consider the trade agreement until Korea frees up the beef trade; but why should Lee make concessions on beef -and antagoinize his domestic beef interests - to get Congress to consider the agreement, when there are so many other reasons to be concerned about ratification?

Ramstad reports:

Assembly Session in May to Consider Trade Agreement

President Lee and the leadership of the Grand National Party (GNP) have agreed to push for a special session of the National Assembly in May to seek approval of the trade agreement with the U.S. (and address some other less important pieces of legislation).  The new Assembly won't be seated until June.  This will be a special session of the Assembly that failed to move the agreement forward back in February: Governing Party Wants FTA Ratification in May (Kim Sue-young, Korea Times, April 11).

Beef Talks in Seoul

Korea has been heavily restricting imports of beef from the U.S. over health concerns.  U.S. legislators have refused to take up the trade agreement unless Korea opens its markets to U.S. beef.  Talks on the issue resumed Friday in Seoul: Korea-US Beef Talks Resume (Kim Hyun-cheol, Korea Times, April 11):

Bad News From the Beltway This Week

Congress is supposed to take action on a trade agreement negotiated under the trade promotion authority within 90 days of the date the president submits it.  However the 90 day requirement just lies in the legislature's rules, and a legislature can change the rules it sets for itself. 

Nancy Pelosi announced Wednesday that she is going to try and do that with respect to the Columbia trade agreement: Pelosi Statement on House Removing Timetable from Consideration of Colombia Free Trade Agreement (press release, April 9).  Normally the president doesn't submit until he gets a "go-ahead" from Congressional leaders; in this case that hadn't come, and he got tired of waiting.  Pelosi's statement reads:

Center-Right Win in Korea's National Assembly Election

Center-right parties did well in yesterday's National Assembly elections: GConservatives Win Majority.  Governing Party Fails to Win Absolute Majority of 168 Seats (Kang Hyun-kyung, Korea Times, April 9).  The Korea Times reports that President Lee's Grand National Party won 151 of the 299 seats in the Assembly,but also that it will need the support of other smaller conservative parties to push his "crucial reform bills."

This should mean a better chance for the trade agreement with the U.S. in the next Assembly, whose term begins in June.  However, a delay to June means the ratification bill has to start all over.  It is possible that the current Assembly will meet in April or May and, in light of the election results, may be more favorable than it was in February.

Andy Jackson's Guide to the National Assembly Elections

Andy Jackson teaches American government in Korea, blogs on Korean politics (South Korean Politics at the The Marmot's Hole), and is a columnist for the Korea Times.  Here's his Quick Guide to Elections (April 7, 2008).  A "brief guide to the parties competing in tomorrow's National Assembly elections."   

Bush Sends the Columbia Agreement to Congress

The Bush Administration wants to take care of Congressional ratification of the trade agreements with Columbia and Panama before it turns to the agreement with Panama. 

Today it sent the agreement with Columbia to Congress: Bush forces trade fight (Ian Swanson, The Hill, April 7, 2007).  The problem is that normally these agreements aren't sent up until Congress signals its readiness to receive them.  In this case, the Administration was concerned that time was running out.

The National Assembly Elections

Korea goes to the polls on April 9th to elect a new National Assembly.  This April 2 story from the JoongAng Daily says the conservative Grand National Party (GNP) is ahead: Latest polls show GNP with big lead .  The GNP is the party of Korea's new President, Lee Myung-bak.  Lee wants to see the trade agreement ratified, and the GNP is more favorably disposed to it. 

The story says that voters will be voting on 245 of the 299 Assembly seats next week, and the remainder will be divided among the parties in proportion to their shares of the votes.

On the other hand The Hankyoreh thinks the Nat’l Assembly election could hinge on swing votes (April 2):

The Hyundai Motor Labor Union's Position in the April Elections

Korea's National Assembly elections are coming up on April 9.  The labor union at Hyundai Motors has said it will support candidates opposed to the trade agreement instead of a party-line slate : Motor Union Stirs Controversy Over Elections (DongA Ilbo, April 1, 2008).

Korea in the National Trade Estimate

The United States Trade Representative released the 2008 issue of its annual National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers on Friday.  The chapter on Korea (Korea) gives a 14 page overview of the range of U.S. concerns about Korean trade policies.  Here's the USTR's press release: Bush Administration Submits Annual Trade Report to Congress (March 28, 2008).

What Next to Move the FTA Along?

Lee Gi-hong, the Washington correspondent of the Dong-A Ilbo interviews three experts on prospects for the trade agreement: Experts Discuss Pushing Forward FTA with U.S. (March 31, 2008). 

Karan Bhatia, former Deputy US Trade Representative, and Thomas Hubbard, former US Ambassador to Korea, emphasize the importance of resolving the beef issue to change the atmosphere in Congress.  Both Bhatia and Hubbard emphasize that the time is short.  Hubbard thinks there is time for passage this year if the agreement is presented before May.  Both Bhatia and Hubbard note the difficulty presented by Detroit's opposition.  Hubbard thinks, "...some concerns of the U.S. auto industry could require answers from joint efforts of the two countries aside from revision of the deal." (I assume he's saying that concerns might be addressed by a side agreement, rather than formal renegotiation, but he doesn't have time in this interview to explain what the content of a side agreement might be.)

Kim Seok-han, described only as a lawyer and expert on the agreement, is less optimistic than the Americans.  He's skeptical about the prospects for passage in a Presidential election year.  Even if the beef issue is resolved, he sees congressmen raising other issues, including but maybe not limited to, autos.  The fundamental issue isn't the agreement, which is good for both countries, but U.S. domestic politics.  Kim doesn't think ratification is impossible, but time is running out,

The U.S. economy is worsening, and free trade is becoming less and less popular. The Democratic Party is expected to gain more seats in both the Senate and the House. Its leading presidential candidates, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, both oppose the deal. Rice will be the next source of controversy after beef and automobiles. Obama has already raised the rice issue. It is best for Korea to close the issues as soon as possible. I don’t think the situation will be any better in 2009.

What happens when U.S. and Korean auto tariffs are eliminated?

Dr.Sang-yirl Nam estimates that the auto tariff provisions of the Korea-U.S. trade agreement - examined independently of the rest of the provisions of the agreement - would provide Korea a $178 million welfare gain, but cost the U.S. about $20 million.

What's the Right U.S. Policy Towards the Kaesong Industrial Complex?

Dick Nanto and Mark Manyin of the Congressional Research Service (CRS) have prepared a report on The Kaesong North-South Korean Industrial Complex (February 14, 2008).  The Complex is an industrial park for South Korean firms located in the north, and using North Korea labor.  Korea tried unsuccessfully to get the U.S. to agree to treat products from the complex as if they were originating in South Korea.  Nanto and Manyin provide an overview of the issue, and discuss U.S. Policy options.  The abstract:

Administration May Push On With the Columbia FTA

The Administration may be moving towards a decision to press for Congressional consideration of the Columbia trade agreement without waiting for Congress to say it's ready (White House gambles on Colombia move, James Politi, FT, Mar 11).  The Administration plans to take care of the trade agreements with Columbia and Panama before it turns to the Korean agreement. 

It's more customary for Congress to initiate the process, but Administration negotiations with Congressional Democrats have apparently not been going anywhere (The Columbia FTA is First in the Queue, Korea-U.S. FTA, March 11). 

This is a high risk strategy (Will the Columbia FTA debate destroy the idea of "fast track"?, Korea-U.S. FTA, Jan 20).  Politi points out:

The Columbia FTA is First in the Queue

The U.S. Administration has wanted to bring the trade agreement with Korea to Congress after the Columbia and Panama agreements are ratified. 

In recent days the Administration and Congress have been trying - so far unsuccessfully - to reach an agreement to bring up the Columbia agreement in a way that gives it a reasonable chance of passing: US-Colombia trade deal faces uncertainty (James Politi and Daniel Dombey, Financial Times, March 11).

Politi and Dombey report that the Columbia agreement has to be submitted within the next month if both the Senate and House are to have time to vote on it this year.  I'd imagine that would apply to the Korea deal as well.

The Administration can force Congress to take up the agreement and start the 90 day approval clock rolling, but it's customary to wait until Congress signals it's ready before submitting a deal.  The Administration has been thinking about forcing the issue and just sending it up for a while now (Will the Columbia FTA debate destroy the idea of "fast track"?).

Congressman Moran Undecided

Remarks by Democratic Congressman James Moran of Virginia suggest the uphill struggle the trade agreement will face in Congress.  Moran was first elected to the House in 1990.  He has a good record on trade issues.  The Cato Institute trade vote tool shows that he voted against trade barriers in 86% of the votes where they've identified this as an issue.  Cato categorizes him as an internationalist.

Yonhap News reports that he told a group of Korean-Americans that he didn't think the agreement would be ratified this year, and much more interestingly, that he didn't know if he could support it (U.S. lawmaker says FTA approval impossible this year, March 4, 2008):