Congressional Prospects

Victoria McGrane reviews the prospects for Congressional approval: Future uncertain for U.S.-Korea FTA (Politico, April 29) and surveys the parties ranged on either side of the debate.  Much of the emphasis is on the auto industry.

How united will the auto industry front remain?  Will the two large auto companies that oppose the deal (Ford and Chrysler) be split off from the UAW:

Pro-trade lobbyists see the labor union opposition as more problematic, as the automakers are more likely to be assuaged by concessions favorable for their business.

And the opportunities for a deal:

It’s far from likely that the White House would reopen the trade deal to renegotiate the auto chapter, as Levin has called for. But it could be helpful for the South Korean government to take some advance steps to build confidence in its commitment to reduce auto barriers, said the Chamber’s Brilliant.

On the other hand, lobbyists say the auto proposal put forth last year by Levin and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles B. Rangel (D-N.Y.) is a nonstarter. That proposal would create benchmarks for lowering U.S. auto barriers tied to the number of American-made cars in Korea. Critics call the plan “managed trade.”

But the lack of a clear timeline for the Korea deal’s consideration means it’s too early for the administration to seriously engage lawmakers on the auto issue, lobbyists say. That’s the kind of deal making that happens when there’s a pressing deadline.