Korea-U.S. FTA

The beat goes on...

The negotiations will continue; negotiators met Friday to schedule the next round (US Reaction to Stalled KOR-US FTA Talks and Sen. Kerry on Congressional Support). 

Kushibo is optimistic ( Kushibo's big post-G20 FTA post: Anti-FTA crowd says Korea is "like China" (and other notes on the FTA)); Lincicome is not (KORUS Post-Mortem).

And will the Republican gains in the 2010 elections help, or hurt (Throwing Free Trade Overboard; Why the Tea Party is bad news for globalization)?

This is unexpected:

In July, the U.S. and South Korean presidents committed to resolving outstanding disagreements on the FTA in time for the Seoul G-20 meetings. 

However, as of Thursday in Korea the negotiating teams have failed - apparently due to continuing opposition from the U.S. auto industry.  (Patricia Zengerle and Jack Kim, South Korea, U.S. fail to resolve trade deal row, Reuters, Nov 11; Scott LIncicome, The Unbelievable KORUS Collapse and the (Near)Death of US Trade Policy, Nov 11).

According to the Reuters story, negotiations will begin again shortly after the end of the G-20 summit.

A few days ago, Troy Stangarone (G-20 Make or Break for KORUS FTA) laid out the implications of a failure to reach an agreement in Seoul:

If the two sides are unable to reach a complete agreement and instead announce a framework, the prospects for the KORUS FTA in 2011 become more uncertain. The legislative agenda for the next session of Congress will be set in the near future and, if the agreement is not finalized by the G-20 summit, it would not have a place on the legislative calendar. This could lead to the agreement being overtaken by other legislative issues, including the Panama FTA, and other future events. However, it would still be possible for the agreement to be sent up for passage in 2011 if a deal could be struck shortly after the G-20, but the longer the delay on reaching an agreement the less likely KORUS FTA will be ratified  in 2011.  With 2012 being a presidential election year and the domestic controversy of the KORUS FTA, the agreement could potentially be taken off the table for consideration.

In short, if the two sides can strike a deal in Seoul this month, the agreement has the best prospects for passage it has seen since it was originally signed in June of 2007 [Stangarone says, because of the greater Republican strength in Congress - Ben]. Thus, the ideal time for the two sides to resolve their differences is now.  Failure to reach an agreement increases uncertainty and gives the opposition more opportunity to derail the agreement in both the United States and Korea.