Korea-U.S. FTA

Resolution of the Beef Controversy?

Negotiations

On Friday the 13th the Korean Trade Minister, Kim Jong-Hoon, arrived in Washington for negotiations with Susan Schwab, the US Trade Representative.  The initial negotiations took place on Friday and Saturday.  Twice Kim threatened to walkout and return to Korea.  However, the negotiations stretched out for almost a week, finally ending on the 19th. Here's a combination of a profile of Kim with a discussion of the negotiations: Man of Adroit Brinkmanship (Jane Han, The Korea Times, June 22)

New Poll Results Show Support for FTA in Korea

A poll conducted for the Hankook Ilbe shows that two-thirds of Koreans support ratification of the proposed trade agreement with the U.S.: Two-Thirds of Koreans Back FTA With US (Kim Sue-young, The Korea Times, June 8, 2008):

According to the poll conducted by the Hankook Ilbo, a sister newspaper of The Korea Times, on the occasion of the 54th anniversary of its founding, 31.6 percent of 1,000 respondents said the Assembly should ratify a motion on the FTA as soon as possible.

About 35.1 percent supported a parliamentary approval for the FTA on the condition that the U.S. Congress passes a motion, said the survey.

Nineteen percent called for rejection, while 14.3 percent remained undecided.

The poll found a lot less support for the current version of the beef agreement:

The survey found that 55.5 percent of the people want a complete renegotiation while 14.3 percent said the nation should adjust the deal if mad cow disease is reported in the U.S.

Those calling for a wait-and-see attitude accounted for 14.2 percent but they claimed revising the accord is necessary if the nation is found to be at disadvantageous compared to Japan and Taiwan which will hold talks to import American beef soon.

This doesn't add up to 100%.  The article is a little confusing about some poll results, perhaps because of translation issues.

What's Driving the Beef Controversy in Korea?

I know I've been surprised by the intensity and persistence of the Korean opposition to the beef agreement in recent weeks. 

Donald Kirk provides an analysis that he attributes to experts at the East-West center in Hawaii: South Korea's Lee takes a grilling (Asia Times, May 24).  The suggestion is that at least some in Korea have an agenda that goes beyond simply preventing beef imports:

...Lee finds himself under vitriolic, unrelenting attack from leftist activists who've found a weakness in his armor of conservative popularity and support. Lee's foes have picked on the issue of the deal that his government made with US negotiators in the hours before he met Bush to resume importing US beef. After regular nightly demonstrations, they've broadened their protests into a general assault on Lee that threatens to deepen existing divisions among conservatives and force Lee into compromises he had hoped to avoid....

Strategists for the United Democratic Party, the main opposition grouping, see the beef protests as critical to a chain reaction. The first step is to undermine the beef agreement, and the next is to convince a majority of US Congress members that South Koreans will not import US beef, agreement or no agreement. In that event, the Congress would be likely either to vote against ratification - or fail to vote at all.

At the same time, Lee's foes promise to do all they can to tear the FTA apart when it comes up for a vote in the National Assembly. Lee's Grand National Party holds a slim majority only when drawing on support of conservatives outside the party, and Lee also has to wheel and deal with conservatives close to his main foe inside his party, the unpredictable Park Keun-hye, daughter of Park Chung-hee, the dictatorial president who was assassinated in 1979.

Analysts see the fight over importing US beef as the lever with which activists who oppose not only Lee but also the US-Korean alliance hope to revive their flagging movement. Beef as an issue for the moment has far more traction than negotiations on getting North Korea finally to give up its nukes.

The first paragraph makes a lot of sense to me as a partisan strategy for the UDP; even non-leftist elements would be tempted to take it.  I am surprised at the implication in the later paragraphs  that deep-sixing the U.S.-Korea Alliance is a "UDP" agenda item; the trade deal was negotiated by a UDP president. Although, again, it does make sense that there are people in Korea, and in the UDP, exploiting the beef deal for just that purpose. 

As the 17th National Assembly Comes to an end...

It's Saturday afternoon, May 24, in Seoul, and 17th National Assembly should be coming to an end.  The Dong-A Ilbo reports that there is talk of an extraordinary session from the 26th to the 29th, but says that this is unlikely to happen: National Assembly in Tug-of-war Over KORUS FTA (May 23).

No Resolution on Beef; No Movement on FTA

Moon Ihlwan thinks much of the current controversy is due to poor communications by the new Lee Administration: Could Korean Leader Learn from Controversies over U.S. Beef Imports? (Eye on Asia, Business Week, May 15).

Almost Certainly No Action in the 17th National Assembly

It looks extremely unlikely that the current (17th) National Assembly will take action on the FTA before it comes to an end this month: Opposition Party Threatens to Scuttle FTA Over Beef (Dong-A Ilbo, May 12):

The main opposition United Democratic Party yesterday said it will refuse to ratify the free trade deal with the United States unless both countries renegotiate their beef import agreement.

With the extraordinary parliamentary session ending May 24, prospects seem dim for the free trade accord’s ratification within the term of the 17th National Assembly.

The party reached the decision in a joint meeting of floor leaders and members of the parliamentary unification, foreign affairs and trade committee. At the National Assembly, they discussed how to respond to the beef deal and the public hearing on the free trade deal set for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Floor leader Kim Hyo-seok said the agreement is not worth discussing without renegotiation of beef imports. “Let me clearly declare the position of the United Democratic Party: [the agreement] will not be put on the negotiating table,” he said.

“We will use this public hearing as an opportunity to delve into what went on between the Korean Embassy in Washington and the Agriculture Ministry April 10-11 (when the beef negotiations began), and how the ministry’s position on beef imports changed over those two days.”...

Beef and Ratification

Donald Kirk provides a useful overview of the turn the trade agreement debate has recently taken in Korea, where opponents of the trade agreement have been fanning public fears about the safety of U.S. beef (although he doesn't get into the assertions that Korean's are unusually susceptible to mad-cow disease): South Korean beef overcooked (Asia Times Online)

Korea's National Assembly to Hold Hearing Next Week

Korea's National Assembly will hold hearings on the trade agreement next week: Parliamentary committee to hold hearing on Korea-U.S. FTA (YOnhap News, May 6):

Korea Debates the Beef Agreement

The Korean agreement to reopen its market to U.S. beef has led to considerable concern about the potential for mad cow disease - especially following media reports that Koreans are genetically more susceptible to it than Americans: U.S. beef jitters grip South Korea (Lee Jong-Heon, UPI AsiaOnline, May 2).

Kang Ki-kab, National Assemblyman and member of the leftish Democratic Labor Party, has been touring the country to drum up opposition to the beef agreement and the trade agreement.  Here's his profile: 'Peasant legislator' fights against U.S. beef imports (Shin Hae-in, Yonhap News, May 2, 2008).

A parliamentary committee has agreed to hold a hearing on the beef agreement in May: Parliamentary committee to hold hearing on U.S. beef deal (The Hankyoreh, April 29)

The Lee Administration is making its own case: Lee Seeks to Quell Mad-Cow Scaremongers (Jung Sung-ki, The Korea Times, May 2, 2008):

President Lee Myung-bak expressed concern Friday that the U.S. beef safety issue was being politicized by the opposition parties and progressive civic groups amid whirling rumors among the public about the dangers of mad cow disease.

Lee directed his Cabinet ministers to come up with comprehensive measures to publicize the truth and myths about the safety of American beef, presidential spokesman Lee Dong-kwan said....

Korea's National Assembly Meets

Korea's National Assembly has begun a final session to consider a number of pieces of legislation, including the trade agreement: Parliamentary session opens amid FTA tension (Shin Hae-in, Yonhap News, April 25).  The Lee Administration hopes to get the trade agreement passed; opposition parties apparently hope to use the session as a forum to criticize the recent beef deal.