Hull-Penetrating Sea Ice and Cruise Ships

Will tourist cruise ships race in to take the place of Canada's shrinking Arctic sea ice?  E. J. Howell and coauthors are not sure.  Abstract:

Although cruise travel to the Canadian Arctic has grown steadily since 1984, some commentators have suggested that growth in this sector of the tourism industry might accelerate, given the warming effects of climate change that are making formerly remote Canadian Arctic communities more accessible to cruise vessels. Using sea-ice charts from the Canadian Ice Service, we argue that Global Climate Model predictions of an ice-free Arctic as early as 2050-70 may lead to a false sense of optimism regarding the potential exploitation of all Canadian Arctic waters for tourism purposes. This is because climate warming is altering the character and distribution of sea ice, increasing the likelihood of hull-penetrating, high-latitude, multi-year ice that could cause major pitfalls for future navigation in some places in Arctic Canada. These changes may have negative implications for cruise tourism in the Canadian Arctic, and, in particular, for tourist transits through the Northwest Passage and High Arctic regions.

Sea ice in Canada's Arctic : implications for cruise tourism  (Stewart, E.J.   Howell, S.E.L.   Draper, D.  Yackel, J. Tivy, A.  Arctic. 60(4): 370-380.  December 2007.)

The MS Explorer was the first cruise ship to transit the Northwest Passage in 1984.  Here she is sinking off the Antarctic last year after hitting a submerged object.  Ice may have been involved; despite the open water in this particular photo, there was a lot around.  However, the circumstances are apparently still unclear.  Here's her Wikipedia article: MS Explorer.  This story from The Times has dramatic photos which show much more ice: Iceberg blamed as passengers flee holed ship in icy waters (Will Pavia, Hannah Strange and James Bone, November 24, 2007)

Photo: Reinhard Jahn via Wikipedia.

Comments

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If you calculate it, at this rate, it'llb e about 40 years till all polar bears will die, but you have to take in mind the fact that ice caps could melt faster in the next 40 years than it did in the last 15, so it could be even less