Åslund, of the Peterson Institute, in today's Moscow Times: 10 Reasons Why the Economy Will Falter:
1. Internationally, one of the greatest booms of all times is finally
coming to an end...
2. Russia's main problem is its enormous corruption....
3. Infrastructure, especially roads, has become an extraordinary bottleneck, and the sad fact is that Russia is unable to carry out major infrastructure projects...
4. Renationalization is continuing and leading to a decline in economic efficiency....
5. The most successful transition countries have investment ratios exceeding 30 percent of GDP, as is also the case in East Asia. But in Russia, it is only 20 percent of GDP, and it is likely to fall in the current business environment....
6. An immediate consequence of Russia's transformation into a rogue state is that membership in the World Trade Organization is out of reach...
7. Minimal reforms in law enforcement, education and health care have been undertaken, and no new attempt is likely....
8. Oil and commodity prices can only go down, and energy production is stagnant, which means that Russia's external accounts are bound to deteriorate quickly.
9. Because Russia's banking system is dominated by five state banks, it is inefficient and unreliable...
10. Inflation is now 15 percent because of a poor exchange rate and monetary policies, though the current capital outflow may ease that problem.
2. Russia's main problem is its enormous corruption....
3. Infrastructure, especially roads, has become an extraordinary bottleneck, and the sad fact is that Russia is unable to carry out major infrastructure projects...
4. Renationalization is continuing and leading to a decline in economic efficiency....
5. The most successful transition countries have investment ratios exceeding 30 percent of GDP, as is also the case in East Asia. But in Russia, it is only 20 percent of GDP, and it is likely to fall in the current business environment....
6. An immediate consequence of Russia's transformation into a rogue state is that membership in the World Trade Organization is out of reach...
7. Minimal reforms in law enforcement, education and health care have been undertaken, and no new attempt is likely....
8. Oil and commodity prices can only go down, and energy production is stagnant, which means that Russia's external accounts are bound to deteriorate quickly.
9. Because Russia's banking system is dominated by five state banks, it is inefficient and unreliable...
10. Inflation is now 15 percent because of a poor exchange rate and monetary policies, though the current capital outflow may ease that problem.
Not encouraging for Russia's ability to develop her Arctic oil and gas resources.
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