Why do we have such large deficits through 2010?
"Kash" at the liberal economics blog Angry Bear looks at how much of the change in Congressional Budget Office (CBO) deficit projections between January 2001 and August 2003 is due to (a) wrong 2001 projections of upcoming economic conditions, (b) 9-11, (c) spending increases, and (d) tax cuts. The analysis is here: "The Birth Tax, Revisited". (The "birth tax" is Kash's term for the change in federal deficits projections under the Bush administration divided by a measure of the population size - "It's Your Children's Money. Quick, Take It!".)
Kash finds that the tax reductions (assuming the sunsets aren't allowed to kick in) account for $2.5 out of the $7.2 trillion deficit over the projection period. Also striking - spending increases account for $1.6 trillion. Spending has been rising rapidly under this administration.
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