I'm voting for Kerry
It goes against the grain - I voted for Bush last time - but I'll vote for Kerry today. The two big issues for me are the war in Iraq and the deficits and failure to address future Social Security or Medicare issues.
The war in Iraq was unnecessary. Hussein had regional aspirations, but I don't think he was a direct threat to the U.S. ("Is Saddam Hussein reckless - or is he a rational international actor?") It turned out that there were no weapons of mass destruction, and the evidence that Iraq was an important supporter of terrorist activity directed against the U.S. is weak. The war has been run poorly. We suffered a heavy diplomatic defeat going in to it, and post-war planning was inadequate. The treatment of prisoners has often been shameful, and the administration has refused to take responsibility. All this said, the world is different now than it was before the war, and, for moral and security reasons, we can't walk away from the situation we've created.
Deficits during a recession are appropriate. But the tax cuts that underlay a large part of them, targeted disproportionately at relatively affluent people with lower spending propensities, were not as potent as they might have been. Moreover, under reasonable assumptions about the future, they are making federal deficits much worse. These deficits will eat into domestic savings, reducing future economic growth or, to the extent we borrow to support investment, making the proceeds of growth the property of people outside the country. They will make it much harder to deal with funding the upcoming Social Security and Medicare deficits. I can't see any serious steps the administration has taken to address these.
The economics are important, but the war is the most important issue. I'm not at all sure that Kerry will be a better economist. His numbers don't add up, and I'm concerned about many of the things he has said about trade. Frankly, I don't really know what he can do better about the war either.
But he is not the person who created the situation in Iraq. On this issue, of overwhelming importance, the current administration has a record of relatively bad judgment and poor performance.
So, off to vote.
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