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April 30, 2005


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2003 was a long time ago in the equivalent of 'computer years'... similar time scale as 'dog years' but even shorter... I can tell you from my own business contacts that the component build is way up in China... wafer fab, disk drives, packaged IC's - the whole deal. In fact I would guess that as of now (start Q2 05) China is exporting more components than importing.

Secondly it is not going to be a 'surprise' where China goes in the next couple years as their last 'Five Year Plan' is just ending... 2001-2005. They post a summary of them on 'China Daily'...
The summary for Telecomm & IT is at:

The Tenth Five-Year Plan of the Telecom Industry

We won't know what kind of a threat they will be until the next one is out... Regardless of whether you approve or don't approve of 'planned economies'... The fact is China has the resources (foreign exchange reserves) and market activeness (to draw additional outside investment) that if they make this 'part of their plan'... they will be a threat.

Make no mistake about it.

r4 gold

In the 20 years since China re-opened to foreign investment, the challenges of doing business in China have become clear.Almost all major Fortune 500 companies are invested in China. Of these, 21 American and 19 Japanese firms have already invested in the manufacturing sector in China. The flurry of foreign investment intensified domestic competition and led to over-capaci ty in China. This made the marketability of some products tough. For instance, Coca-Cola spends more in promotion and marketing in China than in the US.
r4 gold karte

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