Very helpful post from Peter Gallagher today.
His topic is the "must do list" for the meeting of WTO member nation trade ministers in Hong Kong this December: Must do list for agriculture negotiations.
Among other things,
...he talks about the ways negotiators' choices are constrained by the Doha Round time frames, and the ways they try to exploit the contraints on others:
...Both sides know they have more time (at least until the end of the first quarter next year) and plan on using the pressure of the real last days to extract concessions; from their interlocutors, of course, but also from the intransigent groups in their own domestic lobbies. Also, they want to use that time to probe further for advances in their own objectives and concessions from the other side. The USA wants to see developing country pressure build up for more concessions from the EC. The EC could use more time to secure a substantial ‘supporting deal’ on Geographical Indications (GIs) and to pressure the USA over anti-dumping measures (both mentioned in its proposal on 29 October) and its narrow concessions on the trade of the poorest countries (the ‘least developed’).
They cannot, however, let Hong Kong slip by. First, there’s too much to decide to leave everything until next May or June (my guess for the ‘last days’). There must be some interim steps taken in December. Second, there’s the credibility issue. They have the same pressure operating on them in Hong Kong as they felt post-Cancún to come up with a credible set of decisions that conveys assurance that the negotiations will conclude before they run out of time ( really out of time).
The whole post is worth while.
His other really good post in recent days is Testing le défi français on Agriculture, which discusses France's ability to veto a Doha Round agreement that incorporates agriculture measures she doesn't like.
Comments