Apparently, at least for now, it's all up to Pascal Lamy. The International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development published a special edition of its newsletter, "Bridges," today.
Here's their report on the plan for July:
Lamy to be 'catalyst' for agreement
On 1 July, the TNC endorsed a suggestion that emerged from a smaller 'green room' meeting of about 30 ministers for Lamy to "conduct intensive and wide-ranging consultations with the aim of facilitating the urgent establishment of modalities in agriculture and NAMA," and report to the TNC "as soon as possible." The next TNC meeting is tentatively scheduled for 29 July.
The WTO chief has long held that unblocking the negotiations would require parallel progress on a 'triangle' of issues: the US would have to agree to make deeper cuts to domestic farm support; the EU to offer increased agricultural market access, and developing countries such as Brazil and India to offer more on industrial tariffs. However, no such concessions materialised during the recent gathering. Lamy believes that the central players in the negotiations are still waiting for each other to move first, and have not "put all their numbers on the table." He will now attempt to probe further to find out what these still-concealed numbers might be.
As Director-General, Lamy is already empowered to act as a facilitator and 'honest broker' between WTO Members. Sources say that the recent decision gives him a specific mandate to consult with the highest levels of government to help produce a compromise. EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson described it as an "upgrade from facilitator to catalyst." One trade source suggested that the decision effectively recognised that the approach of simply bringing ministers together and encouraging them to negotiate had not succeeded at pushing Members all the way to an agreement.
Lamy said that he planned to pursue "shuttle diplomacy, high-level consultations, [and] testing of numbers... so that we can fill the gaps between the big players." He added that he would run different "what-ifs" -- potential options for compromise -- by them.
Some trade officials have suggested that governments might be more willing to reveal their true 'red lines' to Lamy, as compared to in a meeting with other delegations, where negotiators fear that any concessions might be immediately taken for granted and treated as a new basis for ramped-up demands. This would help Lamy assist Members in transcending the brinkmanship that has characterised the talks.
Declaring his willingness to "crack heads together," Lamy said that he would start with the G-6 -- influential Members Australia, Brazil, India, Japan, the EU, and the US -- before proceeding to other countries. He is scheduled to go to Japan this week.
During a press conference, Lamy dismissed the suggestion that he had engineered the "crisis" precisely in order to be given the mandate to push for consensus more actively. He also rejected the notion that he would prepare a comprehensive text under his own authority. He said that his talks would be based on the texts prepared recently by the chairs of the negotiating groups -- texts in which a vast number of issues remain to be finalised (see BRIDGES Weekly, 28 June 2006, http://www.ictsd.org/weekly/06-06-28/story2.htm). "We've got plenty of [text] on the table… what we do not have on the table is numbers," he emphasised.
Comments