Now the FTA agreement, whose exact terms we don't know at this point, goes to the U.S. Congress, and the Korean National Assembly.
In this post I've tried to pull together some Korean news stories on the prospects for ratification in the National Assembly. I'd caution that I'm feeling my way forward here, and that I don't have enough independent knowledge of Korean politics and public life to evaluate and weigh the different sources, and fit them into a whole picture, as well as I'd like -
Here's the Wikipedia entry on the National Assembly of South Korea (a work in progress). Here's the National Assembly's web page: The National Assembly of the Republic of Korea .
The Assembly is a unicameral legislature. It's members are elected for four year terms. The last elections were in 2004, the next elections will be in 2008. From the stories it's apparent that the timing of these parliamentary elections, and of the upcoming Presidential election this December, will affect the agreement's fate. Here's the Wikipedia article on Korean politics: Politics of South Korea .
The Assembly is dominated by the relatively left leaning Uri and relatively conservative Grand National parties. Three other parties have smaller numbers of adherents - the Democratic Labour Party, the Millennium Democratic or Democratic Party, and the United Liberal Democratic Party.
Here's a Uri party website: Uri Party news. The Uri party appears to be in a state of flux. President Roh, who helped found the Uri party several years ago, left it - along with 20 or 30 members - earlier this year. This column from the Chosun Ilbo (A New Twist to a Bad Old Tradition, Feb 23) discusses this:
There are reports that Roh’s departure from the Uri Party came after close consultations with top party officials. The party asked the president to step aside while it splits up and regroups under a new name, and the president simply chose this time as the right window of opportunity to do so. This is no different than the premeditated exodus of Uri Party lawmakers recently. They simply want to try anything to fool voters during presidential elections at the end of this year.
Recently, the president appeared on TV and appealed to the public to support the ruling party. The lawmakers who left the ruling party have said they would continue to support the president. They may be saying different things on the outside, but they are all part of the same group. Roh may have judged that it would easier for him to pursue a constitutional amendment changing presidential terms in office after he leaves the widely unpopular Uri Party.
Here's a Brookings paper on the recent evolution of Korea's political culture: The Transformation of South Korean Politics: Implications for U.S.-Korea Relations (Sook-Jong Lee, Sept 2004). Sunhyok Kim and Wonhyuk Kim explain "How to Deal with South Korea" to Americans (The Washington Quarterly, Spring, 2007). This story explains why a generational change in Korean leadership is changing attitudes towards America.
Polls this week show approval for the FTA, given what's known about it: Poll shows pact a go (JoongAng, Apr 4); Three in Five Koreans Support FTA: Poll (Chosun Ilbo, Apr 4). This has also translated into a boost in the polls for President Roh: Korea-U.S. FTA lifts Roh's approval ratings (The Hankyoreh, Apr 4); FTA Sends Roh's Approval Ratings Soaring (Chosun Ilbo, Apr 5). This Wall Street Journal story also reports the poll results: South Koreans Back Agreement, Poll Finds (Apr 5). Although Roh has been associated with the left and the Uri party, he's apparently picked up support among some sectors of the more conservative Grand National Party: Roh's Enemies Turn Champions Over FTA (Chosun Ilbo, Apr 4)
A recent survey shows FTA opinion divided in the National Assembly. 42% of Lawmakers Noncommittal Over Deal (Korea Times, Apr 3). The story reports on a poll of 282 of the 296 members of the Assembly. 31.2% support ratification, 23.4 oppose it, 41.5% are undecided, and there was no response from 3.9%. Over half of the undecided tend to support the agreement, but want more information about the impact on farmers. "Most of the FTA opponents are lawmakers supported by farmers..." The story goes on to describe the opinion breakout by party.
This Hankyoreh story - from the days before the agreement was reached - discusses the nature of a potential coalition against ratification, and the issue of timing: FTA may face uphill battle in Korean Assembly approval (Apr 3). There is a school of thought that expects the deal to be up for ratification in September when the Assembly opens its session. However,
In particular, ahead of the presidential election this December and general elections in April next year, lawmakers may feel more burden in handling the FTA deal within this year, as they do not want to alienate their voter base. They may choose to take advantage of the fact that there is no time limit for the National Assembly to approve the deal. In the case of the first ROK-Chile FTA, the deal was submitted to the National Assembly in late 2002, but it was approved by the Assembly of the next administration, one-and-a-half years later. Since the ripple effects of the FTA with the U.S. are anticipated to be far larger than those from the deal with Chile, many experts predict that the FTA settlement may not be handled until the next presidential administration, which will begin in February 2008, or the 18th National Assembly, which will start in May 2008.
This Chosun Ilbo story discusses Assembly divisions, and also discusses speculation that ratification will be postponed to next year: Korea-U.S. FTA Faces Big Hurdle in Parliament (Mar 29).
These two stories discuss Roh administration planning for the ratification fight: President Seeks Early Ratification (Korea Times, Apr 3); Roh instructs cabinet to be fully prepared for FTA ratification (The Hankyoreh, Apr 3)
These three stories discuss the implications of the agreement for the presidential elections in December: Free trade divides liberals in presidential race (Korea Herald, Apr 4); Free trade deal likely to be source of debate in presidential race (The Hankyoreh, Apr 2).
Qualifications text at start revised April 5.
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