Ben Muse

Cordell Hull and the Space Aliens

Some stories are just too good not to pass on, even if you wonder whether or not they are true: Cordell Hull saw Aliens in Glass Containers .

Baucus on Trade

Max Baucus, Democratic Senator from Montana and Chair of the Senate Finance Committee, gave a speech on trade early this month: Senator Max Baucus Delivers Major Speech to NDN on U.S. Trade Policy (Oct 2). 

Unlike some of the Democratic Presidential candidates, and unlike the party's populist/economic nationalist wing, Baucus describes trade and globalization in very positive terms, characterizes anti-globalization politicians negatively, and reminds his audience about the Democratic party's great internationalist traditions.  There's an enormous difference between this, and Clinton's recent rhetoric: What Clinton Said About Trade on Monday (Ben Muse, October 11, 2007)  Granted, Baucus doesn't have to face Iowa caucuses this winter.

Policy recommendations include:

Trade and AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa

Tyler Cowen points to a new draft working paper by Emily Oster finding a causal link between exports from a sub-Saharan African country and new AIDS infections: Routes of Infection: Exports and HIV Incidence in Sub-Saharan. 

Oster finds that "a doubling of exports leads to as much as a quadrupling in new HIV infections." 

Why does this happen? 

This relationship is consistent with a model of the epidemic in which truckers and other migrants have higher rates of risky behavior, and their numbers increase in periods with greater exports. I present evidence suggesting that the relationship between exports and HIV is causal and works, at least in part, through increased transit.

There are important policy conclusions:

The result has important policy implications, suggesting (for example) that there is signi cant value in prevention focused on these transit-oriented groups. I apply this result to study the case of Uganda, and argue that a decline in exports in the early 1990s in that country appears to explain between 30% and 60% of the decline in HIV infections. This suggests that the success of the Ugandan education campaign against HIV -  the ABC campaign - has been overstated.

Export Administration Act

The Congressional Research Service has released a report on the U.S. Export Administration Act (EAA): The Export Administration Act: Evolution, Provisions, and Debate (Ian Fergusson, September 29, 2007).

The EAA gives the President authority to "control exports for national security, foreign policy, or short supply purposes."  This backgrounder looks at the history of the EAA, its provisions, and the types of products that raise concerns, and outlines some of the different perspectives people have on it.

Here's the executive summary:

CFIUS Reform Isn't Done Yet, We've Still Got the Rulemaking

George Grammas of Squire, Sanders & Dempsey reviews the recent legislation reforming the process by which the U.S. reviews foreign investments for their national security implications: United States: New Law Enhances Scrutiny of Foreign Acquisitions of US Critical Infrastructure (October 24, 2007).

Where Are The Campers?

Nights spent camping in U.S. national parks have been declining since the early 1990s:

In the beginning...

The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) is the 1947 agreement that provided a framework for the gradual reduction of tariffs and the expansion of trade since the Second World War.  This document is one of the load-bearing walls of the modern world.

Douglas Irwin, Petros Mavroidis and Alan Sykes are working on a book on the origins of the GATT.  Here's the Sept 19, 2007 draft of the introduction and first chapter: The Genesis of the GATT.

Arctic Preparations

As the Arctic ice sheet shrinks, shipping will begin to move from the North Atlantic to the North Pacific across northern Norway and Russia, and across northern Canada and Alaska.  Both routes meet in the Chukchi Sea, merge, and transit the Bering Strait.  Oil development, commercial fishing, tourism, scientific research, and military patrols are also going to contribute traffic.

All of this will require infrastructure: ports, bases for sea-going tugs, air facilities, search and rescue bases, prepositioned oil spill response equipment, and aids to navigation. 

The U.S. Coast Guard will be setting up its first Arctic Ocean base - probably at Barrow - next Spring: New Coast Guard Task in Arctic’s Warming Seas .  It's also begun discussions with the Russians on comtrol of traffic through the Bering Strait (Matthew Wald and Andrew Revkin, New York Times, October 19):

Foreigners Want U.S. Services

The Progressive Policy Institute's "Trade Fact of the Week" from last week deals with the growth of international and U.S. trade in services, and the regional origins of U.S service exports: Rhode Island, Nevada, and the District of Columbia are U.S.' Most Service-Intensive Exporters (Oct 10):

A Trade Policy for Progressive Democrats

The Democratics harbor a wide range of trade policy communities: economic nationalist/populists, progressives, various special interest protectionists, and Hamiltonian project liberals. 

Here Dani Rodrik describes a trade policy for progressive Democrats: What would a progressive trade agenda look like? (Dani Rodrik's Weblog, October 12).  The comments are good too.

What Clinton Said About Trade on Monday

On Monday Clinton laid out her program for rebuilding the middle class in the U.S.: Rebuilding the Middle Class: Hillary Clinton's Economic Blueprint for the 21st Century.  Trade measures play a role in this.

The speech took place at the start of a campaign tour through Iowa.  About two thirds of the way through the speech she got to trade.  She said she'd do the following:

• include enforceable protections for labor and environmental standards (It's unclear whether this only refers to future agreements, or to renegotiation of existing agreements.  Does it go beyond the Spring agreement between the Administration and Congress?)
• Appoint a Trade Enforcement Officer in the USTR office, and double the budget for enforcement of trade agreements (here's the USTR website on Monitoring and enforcement)
• Review all trade agreements every five years and "make adjustments" (sounds unilateral, but maybe it could be interpreted as renegotiating, or negotiating supplemental agreements, clarifying letters, or memoranda of understanding) starting with NAFTA
• Increase budget, coverage and efficacy of trade adjustment assistance.  Her health plan would also relieve persons displaced by trade
• reduce the Federal budget deficit

Here it is in her words:

It's going to cost more to fix Alaska's roads

Global warming is going to increase the costs of maintaining Alaska's public infrastucture (roads, bridges, sewage systems, buildings, airports). 

Researchers from the University of Alaska Anchorage's Institute for Social and Economic Research look into it: Estimating Future Costs for Alaska Public Infrastructure At Risk From Climate Change:

A warming climate will damage Alaska's infrastucture because it was designed for a cold climate.  The damage will be concentrated in places where permafrost thaws, flooding increases, and coastal erosion gets worse.  But the extra costs will likely diminish over time, as government agencies increasingly adapt infrastructure to changing conditions.

The Walrus and the Shrinking Arctic Ice Cap

Dan Joling reports on impact of global warming on walrus in Alaska: Walruses Abandon Ice for Alaska Shore. Melting Ice Pack Displaces Alaska Walrus (ABC News, October 4):

Keeping Up To Date on American Trade Policy Views

Daniel Ikenson of the Cato Institute read the report on the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll of likely Republican primary voters (59% of whom felt foreign trade had been bad for the U.S.) and found the poll wanting: Lies, Damn Lies, Statistics, and a Media Happy to Abuse Them (Cato Online, Oct 4).  He thinks the questions were badly phrased. Here's a correction that doesn't affect his key point: Correction to Yesterday’s Post, (Lies, Damn Lies,…) (Cato Online, Oct 5). 

Here's my post on those poll results: Republican Primary Voter Trade Views (Ben Muse, Oct 6)

The WSJ/NBC poll results weren't the only ones released last week.  The Pew Research Center also released a set of poll results with some information on U.S. trade attitudes.  Ikenson reported on these as well: How Do Americans Really Feel about Trade? (Cato Online, Oct 5).  Here we find that 64% of Republicans think trade has been a good thing for the U.S.

Cruising to Alaska

The last cruise ship of the season came through Juneau in mid-September, ending a season which begins in May each year.  Throughout the summer there were typically three or four large cruise ships at the docks or at anchor in Juneau's harbor. 

From Alaska Port Reviews.

Rough preliminary estimates from the industry suggest the number of passengers touring to Alaska were up by about 40,000 from last year, bringing the total close to 1,000,000 for the season:

Republican Primary Voter Trade Views

Republicans likely to vote in their presidential primaries next year tend to favor new restrictions on imports.  John Harwood reports on the results of a new poll conducted by the Well Street Journal and NBC News: Republicans Grow Skeptical On Free Trade (Wall Street Journal, October 5). 

A detailed summary of the poll results is here: NBC/Wall Street Journal GOP Primary Voters Survey.

A Useful Compilation

From the Congressional Research Service: U.S. Trade Statutes: Expiration Dates and Mandated Periodic Reports to Congress (October 2) -  and a lesson on the trade policy relationship between Congress and the President:

Congestion pricing for roads, airport slots, railroad infrastructure, and waterway locks

The NERA Economic Consulting firm offers several reports dealing with congestion pricing for various transportation modes: 

• Worldwide: Transport Economics - Part 1 Road and airport slot pricing (Emily Bulman, John Dodgson and Stuart Holder)
• Worldwide: Transport Economics - Part 2 Airport slot and rail infrastructure (Emily Bulman, John Dodgson and Stuart Holder)
• Using Charges to Tackle Road Congestion (Emily Bulman, Simon Maunder, and former NERA Director John Dodgson)
• Congestion at Locks on Inland Waterways: An Experimental Testbed of a Policy of Tradable Priority Permits for Lock Access (Dr. Joseph Cook with Dr. Charles Plott)
• Study to Assess the Effects of Different Slot Allocation Schemes (Ian Jones, et al.)
• An Examination of Rail Infrastructure Charges (Ian Jones, Stuart Holder, and former NERA Director John Dodgson with Sion Jones)
• NERA Topics #10: The Economics of Airport Slots (Ian Jones with Ivan Viehoff)

New Research Results on U.S. tariff history

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has distributed two new working papers on U.S. tariff history.

Douglas Irwin estimates Trade Restrictiveness and Deadweight Losses from U.S. Tariffs, 1859-1961 and finds:

The Incredible Shrinking Arctic Ice Cap

The Arctic sea ice melt season is over. 

The National Snow and Ice Data Center reports that the arctic ice cap "plummeted to the lowest levels since satellite measurements began in 1979.": Arctic Sea Ice Shatters All Previous Record Lows. Diminished summer sea ice leads to opening of the fabled Northwest Passage . (press release, Oct 1).

Figure 1: This image compares the average sea ice extent for September 2007 to September 2005; the magenta line indicates the long-term median from 1979 to 2000. September 2007 sea ice extent was 4.28, compared to 5.57 in September 2005. This image is from the NSIDC Sea Ice Index.

Figure 2: The updated time series plot puts this summer’s sea ice extent in context with other years. 2007, shown in solid blue, is far below the previous record year of 2005, shown as a dashed line; September 2007 was 36% below where we would expect to be in an average year, shown in solid gray.

Figure 3: September ice extent from 1979 to 2007 shows an obvious decline. The September rate of sea ice decline since 1979 is now approximately 10 percent per decade, or 72,000 square kilometers (28,000 square miles) per year.

Ways and Means Hearing on Import Safety This Week

The House Ways and Means Subcommittee's on Oversight and Trade will be conducting a hearing on Import Safety on Thursday: Joint Hearing on Import Safety :

Is Democracy Gaining as Chinese Incomes Grow?

You'd hope that democracy would make headway as incomes grow in China, but a set of World Bank's governance indicators doesn't show evidence of progress since 1996 - despite awesome growth.

Chinese GDP per capita has grown enormously since 1980 - and especially since the first World Bank governance indicators become available in 1996: