Jagdish Bhagwati (Columbia professor and noted international trade economist) thinks the upcoming ministerial meetings of the World Trade Organization in Cancun in September may be problematic in the way the 1999 ministerial meetings in Seattle were problematic. The Seattle meetings collapsed because of a poorly prepared agenda inside and widespread rioting outside.
Bhagwati is worried because the current trade negotiations are in disarry, Cancun will provide a hospitable environment for protesters, and the U.S. is not providing necessary leadership. Recall that WTO members are currently negotiating reductions in trade barriers - with a particular focus on efforts to help developing nations (see my post "A Tale of Three Cities"
Bhagwati writes on the editorial page of today's (7-2) Wall Street Journal - "The Caravan to Cancun." Some of his points -
Cancun will provide a fertile ground for protest: (1) it is easy to get to [and although Bhagwati doesn't say so, its an agreeable place to go - Ben], (2) "Mexico has a tradition of activist students...", (3) "Mexico is rife with fanciful arguments linking the ills in Chiapas to Nafta.", (4) U.S. agricultural subsidies and Nafta agricultural liberalization have created "political fallout" within Mexico, (5) symbol-wise, the host, Mexican President Vincente Fox, used to be a Coca-cola executive, and (6) "The frustrated antiwar movement is allying with the anti-globalizers."
The ministers are are also in disarry going into Cancun. The negotiations are already behind on what is an unreasonable ambitious time line. Major issues for this negotiations process - agricultural liberalization and reforms that would allow poor countries to get less expensive access to medical drugs - are stymied, or moving slowly. In the case of reform of intellectual property rights to get less expensive drugs to poor countries, it is the U.S. that is holding up an agreement.
U.S. leadership is essential but underperforming. The U.S. is wasting its energies on a large number of country-to-country trade negotiations "...adding to the maze of preferences that blight the trading system..." instead of focusing on moving ahead comprehensive multilateral trade negotiations within the WTO framework.
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