Nations wax and nations wane

Nations wax and nations wane

Foreign Affairs editor James Hoge argues that Indian and Chinese economic growth will increase their relative power in the world, while that of the west will decline: "A Global Power Shift in the Making"

Fundamental changes in the relative power of states "occur infrequently, and are rarely peaceful." Hoge sees the rise of China, base on its economic fundamentals, as the key fact, and discusses potential political responses. The U.S. has engaged in a traditional competitive balance of power response:

"Militarily, the United States is hedging its bets with the most extensive realignment of U.S. power in half a century. Part of this realignment is the opening of a second front in Asia. No longer is the United States poised with several large, toehold bases on the Pacific rim of the Asian continent; today, it has made significant moves into the heart of Asia itself, building a network of smaller, jumping-off bases in Central Asia. The ostensible rationale for these bases is the war on terrorism. But Chinese analysts suspect that the unannounced intention behind these new U.S. positions, particularly when coupled with Washington's newly intensified military cooperation with India, is the soft containment of China...

Suspicious Americans have interpreted larger Chinese military budgets as signs of Beijing's intention to roll back America's presence in East Asia. Washington is thus eager to use India, which appears set to grow in economic and military strength, as a counterbalance to China as well as a strong proponent of democracy in its own right..."

Hoge acknowledges the need to be prepared for a competitive relationship, but recommends cooperative engagement as well.

"...The Bush administration's embrace of engagement with China is an improvement over its initial posture, and the change has been reflected in Washington's efforts to work with Beijing in the battle against terrorism and negotiations with North Korea. The change has also been reflected in the reluctance to settle trade and currency differences by imposing duties...

...The United States must also avoid creating a self-fulfilling prophecy of strategic rivalry with China. Such a rivalry may in fact come to pass, and the United States should be prepared for such a turn of events. But it is not inevitable; cooperation could still produce historic advancements.

At the international level, Asia's rising powers must be given more representation in key institutions, starting with the UN Security Council...The same can be said of other key international bodies...

...Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin has embraced the idea of elevating to heads-of-state level the meetings of the G-20 group, which is composed of 10 industrialized countries and 10 emerging market economies. This could incorporate into global economic governance those countries with large populations and growing economies.

The credibility and effectiveness of international bodies depends on such changes; only then will they be able to contribute significantly to peace among nations. Although hardly foolproof, restructuring institutions to reflect the distribution of power holds out more hope than letting them fade into irrelevance and returning to unrestrained and unpredictable balance-of-power politics and free-for-all economic competition."

Paul Kelly sees economic and population growth driving similar power shifts between Australia and its Asian neighbors, and focuses on potential economic responses in
"Punching Above Our Weight" from Policy magazine.

Kelly's starting point is the argument that "disparity in growth rates between Australia and industrialising East Asia meant that the gap in economic size, technological and industrial sophistication will narrow, and, as a result 'Australia will be able to rely less on its strategic and economic weight in the region to achieve its policy objectives' " [in the last phrase, Kelly quotes from a 1997 Australian gov't white paper- Ben]...

"Hard power" is best defined by population and GDP, and other Asian countries are likely to outcompete Australia on both criteria in coming years.

"The situation is compounded by a series of strategic realities." Australia lives in an increasingly rough neighborhood. "...Australia is in a region where dislocation and conflict are on the rise...Australia will have to assume a greater role within its own neighborhood not just as a security partner but to uphold civil society and check the drift towards failed states...The threat of Islamic terrorism will drive Australia into deeper collaboration with Indonesia, the Philippines and other regional partners..." Nevertheless, Australia has few opportunities to seek increased security through "political or regional economic union" with other states (aside from New Zealand). Finally, "Australia is highly exposed to the impact of globalization."

Kelly focuses on the economic dimensions of Australia's strategic response. Australia has to enhance three strategic assets: GDP, population, and technological change. The response includes: (a) "becoming one of the most open and competitive economies in the world exposed to global markets and the disciplines they demand." (b) investment in education, (c) microeconomic reform to maintain a flexible economy, (d) encourage immigration, and (c) public policy to stabilize the fertility rate.

I learned about Kelly's article from the Arts & Letters Daily.

Revised 6-29-04