Since the Bush Administration selected Paul Wolfowitz as its choice for the President of the World Bank, there has been persistent speculation that the Administration would support Pascal Lamy as Director-General of the World Bank in exchange for European support for Wolfowitz.
Here are a couple of stories that mention this in passing. Marie-Louise Moeller reports for SwissInfo, "EU seeks talks with Wolfowitz" and Aine Gallagher reports for Reuters, "Europe Buries Qualms Over Wolfowitz".
""...The realpolitik of the situation is that in all likelihood Mr Wolfowitz will be appointed as chairman of the bank," Irish Finance Minister Brian Cowen told a news conference after a summit of European Union leaders in Brussels on Wednesday...
Others at the summit indicated there would be no objections to Wolfowitz's nomination, which comes at a time when Europe is seeking to heal rifts with the Bush administration and wants U.S. backing for former EU Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy's bid to head the World Trade Organisation..."
The Reuters story points to another potential tradeoff: "Few obstacles for Wolfowitz in World Bank campaign".
"Many European officials are fuming privately, diplomatic sources say. The sources said European angst has remained unexpressed in large part because many countries have candidates in the running for top international posts.
Britain, Norway and the Netherlands are vying for the helm of the U.N. Development Program, which has an annual budget of nearly $3 billion. Meanwhile, the European Union has nominated former EU trade chief Pascal Lamy of France for the top job at the World Trade Organization, which comes open in August."
There has been a fair amount of speculation that the U.S. may back Pascal Lamy. Much of it has centered around the close working relationship Lamy had with former US Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Zoellick. More recently a possible Wolfowitz/Lamy exchange has been bruited. Lamy is certainly extremely capable, and has the necessary WTO background.
But here are some counterarguments:
- The articles cited above suggest that many European states will already back Wolfowitz. Unless this is due to US commitments already privately made, to back Lamy as a quid pro quo, it doesn't sound like the US will have to back Lamy to get Wolfowitz.
- Lamy and Zoellick worked well together. But Zoellick isn't USTR anymore. As Deputy Secretary of State he has a much wider range of issues, and won't be the lead on US trade negotiations.
- Lamy is a French Socialist. There may be ideological objections within the Administration.
- An apparent Lamy for Wolfowitz exchange, placing a European as Director-General of the WTO, would create enormous antagonism among the developing countries that have been pressing more and more insistently for a leadership position at the WTO.
- The US has traditionally objected to WTO Directors-General from large European nations. Under the GATT, most DGs were from smaller European states. In the 1994 selection campaign, the US backed Mexican President Carlos Salinas, and did not agree to the selection of an Italian candidate until there was no alternative - and even then, not readily. There were no European candidates in 1998-99.
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