Speculation about a Wolfowitz for Lamy trade abounds: Here's a UPI item via the March 28 Washington Times "UPI Hears..."
"...The only person outside his immediate Washington circle with whom Bush shared his plan to appoint Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz to run the World Bank was his closest ally, Tony Blair. Bush consulted Blair a month before the Wolfowitz name first surfaced -- but Blair kept the secret from his own Cabinet... Above all it has infuriated Gordon Brown, the powerful Chancellor of the Exchequer and Blair's most jealous and most dangerous rival. Brown... takes the way Blair kept Bush's little secret as a personal slight... Brown also thinks Blair was very dumb not to hold out for a big fat favor in exchange for his support for Wolfowitz. After all, the French and Germans have told Bush that they will swallow Wolfowitz -- but only if Bush accepts former European Union trade commissioner Pascal Lamy as the next head of the World Trade Organization. Funny, but Bush doesn't yet seem to have shared the news of this bargain with his own Cabinet, nor with Congress. Will the deal hold?"
Developing countries are a majority of WTO nations, they have a lot at stake in trade negotiations, they think fairness requires that the Director-General be from a developed country, and they think they were denied their opportunity in 1999. A developing country coalition could prevent consensus around a given candidate.
I'd guess that many developing countries would react badly to an apparent backroom North Atlantic deal, with U.S. support for Pascal Lamy exchanged for European support for Wolfowitz.
In 1998-1999, a deadlock between developed and developing country candidates for Director-General led to a prolonged contest, a failure to reach consensus around any candidate, and a lot of anger. The preoccupation with the race interfered with the preparations for the meeting of WTO member country trade ministers in Seattle, and contributed to the failure of those meetings. The start of the current round of trade negotiations was delayed for two years.
Another bad outcome may be possible if the speculation about a Wolfowitz/Lamy deal turns out to be right. I'm not sure the speculation is right. But, if Pascal Lamy is going to win, and his tenure is going to be productive, it will help if he can win in a way that minimizes the antagonism of developing countries. I don't think that road runs through Washington first. If there is a deal, it would help if implementation were contingent on Lamy's demonstrated ability to attract significant developing country support.
Minor revisions 3-29-05
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