Relative strengths of Lamy and Pérez del Castillo

Forbes magazine runs a column from Oxford Analytica on the WTO's Director-General selection process (April 4): Another WTO Director-General Candidate Withdraws.   

The authors review the  process so far, and discuss the significance of the Director-General position. 

They finish by looking at the relative strengths of the two remaining candidates:

Four key factors are likely to decide who is chosen as the next DG: experience, North-South disparities, affiliations and personality.

Both candidates are very experienced.  Perez del Castillo is from a developing country; this will count with the developing countries who believe the WTO DG should come from a developing country (this is the north-south issue). 

With respect to policy affiliations:

The candidates' affiliations regarding policy also hold weight. WTO activities and negotiations are governed by the WTO agreements and the mandate established by joint decisions of the member governments. A successful DG must respect this mandate and also remain neutral between the differing aspirations of member governments. Nevertheless, members want to know that their concerns are fully understood. On the important current issue of agricultural liberalization, Perez del Castillo is backed by the G20 countries, which want to go as far as possible while members on the defensive may be more comfortable with Lamy. Furthermore, many G90 countries may support Lamy since their key trading relationships are with the EU.

Lastly, the candidates' personality traits. Lamy is dynamic, tough (legendarily so when he was chief of staff to EU Commission President Jacques Delors), an effective negotiator and known to be dissatisfied with WTO working practices.

Perez del Castillo's election to the leading WTO chairmanships shows that other WTO members trust his judgement, neutrality and effectiveness. He has also already headed an international organization, the Latin American Economic System (SELA).

Lamy is marginally the favorite, as he is more likely to generate the impetus needed to conclude the Doha negotiations...