A meeting of E.U. foreign ministers on Tuesday, called by France to review the Doha Round negotiations, apparently gave E.U. negotiator Peter Mandelson approval to push forward with the agricultural negotiations.
However, a strong reaction by France since then appears to have thrown things off the tracks...
The trade ministers of the Five Interested Parties (E.U., U.S., Brazil, India, and Australia) were to meet again today, and be joined by ministers from Argentina, Canada, China, New Zealand, Japan and Switzerland.
However, Tom Wright indicates that the meeting was canceled because of France's opposition to further compromises in the E.U.'s negotiating position: Trade envoys gloomy on next meeting (International Herald Tribune, Oct 20)
Martin Arnold provides details on comments by France's interior minister: Sarkozy attacks Mandelson’s ‘fool’s bargain’ (Financial Times, Oct 20)
Nicolas Sarkozy, France’s interior minister, on Thursday launched a stinging attack against Peter Mandelson, the European Union trade commissioner, for accepting a “fool’s bargain” in his offer to cut farm tariffs and subsidies...
The French agriculture ministry said on Wednesday evening it could not accept that Mr Mandelson “in any way whatsoever” raise farm trade in talks this week. Its comments came despite EU states backing the trade commissioner earlier in the week.
Sarkozy's editorial apparently went beyond criticism of the particular proposals advanced by Mandelson, to fundamental criticism of the E.U. trade negotiating institutions:
Mr Sarkozy, leader of France’s ruling centre-right party and favourite for the 2007 presidential elections, called for a shake-up of EU international trade negotiations, one of the few areas where Brussels has full powers to act on behalf of its 25 members.
He said Europe should accept that reform was needed after France’s humiliating No vote in its referendum over the European constitution on May 29. “The EU must draw lessons from May 29 by changing its approach to international negotiations,” he said...
He said Mr Mandelson had “gone beyond the mandate of negotiations” granted by EU member states to the Commission and argued that Europe needed “a political leader elected by his peers and accountable before the people and their representatives”.
The piece notes that the French critique may undercut Mandelson's future negotiating credibility. Also that Sarkozy is viewed (in the French context) as a relatively strong advocate of market approaches to resource allocation.
Martin refers to comments by France's Interior Minister, and from its agriculture ministry. Tom Wright also quoted remarks by its Trade Minister, Christine Lagarde, as well.
William Schomberg and Richard Waddington report that: Trading nations pile pressure on EU over farms (Reuters India, Oct 21).
They quote Mandelson as trying to expand the range of issues currently in play. Right now, the world is waiting on an agricultural breakthrough; other issues are moving in slow motion until people see what sort of compromise might be reached on agriculture. Mandelson's comments suggest that E.U. compromise on agriculture might be easier to get if the Europeans see progress, and something for them, in the other negotiating areas. However they also quote the Brazilian foreign minister saying that's not going to happen.
Mandelson is also quoted as referring to the U.S. proposal for a 90% tariff cut as a "hopelessly over-inflated bid" that may impede negotiating progress.
U.S. and Australian hopes:
Both the United States and Australia say any new EU offer would have to be pitched between the U.S. 90 percent cut proposal and a call by the Brazil-led G20 developing country alliance for average tariff cuts of just over 50 percent.
The EU has said it could go over 50 percent only on its top tariffs and wants a wide number of exceptions from the cuts.
And a reminder that it's not over yet:
Australian Trade Minister Mark Vaile still had hopes of a deal. "Discussions get made inside a pressure cooker and the pressure comes on the closer you get to decisions," he said.
Tim Colebatch, in Australia, indicates that Mandelson may hope to come back with an new proposal next week: Europe refuses to shift tariffs (The Age, Oct 21):
Instead, EU trade commissioner Peter Mandelson said he needed another week to put a proposal together. On Tuesday Mr Mandelson fought off a French-led move to hobble his authority to negotiate tariff cuts.
David Gow and Larry Elliot report rumors that Mandelson may "defy" French objections and offer new proposals in the next week: Mandelson to risk French wrath with subsidy cuts :
With the the main players in the World Trade Organisation negotiations warning that the next fortnight will be make-or-break, EU trade commissioner, Peter Mandelson, was last night said to be preparing to risk political crisis, defying France to offer further cuts in farm subsidies and food tariffs...
Mr Mandelson, under renewed fire from Paris for going beyond his mandate, warned that talks at the WTO in Geneva needed a breakthrough "in the next fortnight" or the planned summit would have to scale down its ambitions. A posse of senior French ministers lined up to warn Mr Mandelson to drop negotiations on agriculture, effectively gagging him, but he is understood to be ready to make new concessions to kickstart movement in manufactured goods and services.
He is said to be calculating that France, in the throes of a political crisis since rejecting the new EU constitution in May, will hesitate to wield the veto on any post-Hong Kong deal and will fail to win backing from other EU states in the run-up to the December summit of 148 WTO states.
Dan Looker quotes U.S. trade negotiator, Rob Portman saying that E.U. proposals as late as the end of October could still be relevant:
Portman and Johanns said that, because the issue of tariff cuts is complex, any serious proposal from the E.U. needs to be made by the end of October in order for negotiators to have time to study it before the Hong Kong meeting. Portman is returning to the U.S. tomorrow, but he said he would be willing to return to Europe next week to continue talks on market access.
Portman, Johanns see possible WTO failure in Hong Kong (Agriculture Online, Oct 20).
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