The stalemate in the Doha Round agricultural negotiations continues:
On Monday, Oct 10th, the U.S. made some relatively specific proposals for reductions in agricultural tariffs and domestic subsidies, as well as on other issues (U.S. Proposal -- WTO Agriculture Negotiations ).
The E.U. followed up with a set of its own proposals. (Statement of EU conditional negotiating proposals – with explanatory annotations ). While the E.U. response fell short of what the U.S. and other parties (such as the "Group of 20" - larger developing countries) wanted to get, it apparently exceeded what some E.U. members wanted to give.
France took the lead among the EU nations that wanted to constrain the EU's negotiator (I've seen Greece and Ireland also mentioned in this group). She obtained a meeting of E.U. foreign ministers on Tuesday, Oct 18 to review the negotiations. However the foreign ministers chose not to impose the limits France sought: EU supports trade chief (International Herald Tribune, Oct 19). The E.U.s conclusions may be found here: WTO DOHA DEVELOPMENT AGENDA - Council conclusions .
Here are two speeches from the internal E.U. debate: Peter Mandelson (E.U. chief trade negotiator): Statement to General Affairs Council; Doha Round negotiations and the Commission mandate Mariann Fischer Boel (E.U. agriculture minister): DDA negotiations in Agriculture .
Nevertheless, in the later part of the week, the French insisted that they would not accept an agreement that incorporated any additional compromises of the E.U.'s negotiating position: France digs in heels on farm subsidies. Alan Beattie and Raphael Minder discuss the background to French concerns in this report: Tarriff cuts fail to grow on French farmers (Financial Times, Oct 23):
The Bridges Weekly Trade Digest, prepared by the International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD) has very helpful summaries: (1) Ag Subsidies On Negotiating Table; Haggling Underway (2)Agriculture Week: Members Focus On Lagging Market Access Talks. Bridges came out on the Wednesday, the 19th, so doesn't cover the end of last week. I posted clippings from several news articles on Thursday: Doha stalemate
Going into the new week, things don't look awfully good:
On Friday, Richard Waddington reported that Pressure mounts on EU to break WTO deadlock (Reuters, Oct 21):
Echoing remarks by U.S. Trade Representative Rob Portman, a senior Cairns group official said he expected Brussels to produce a revised tariff offer by next Thursday.
Ministers from the five states, who represent a wide range of trade interests, would then get together again for a telephone conference on Friday, the official said.
"Our clear understanding is that the EU will come forward with a revised plan next Thursday. That was what they offered," the senior official said, referring to the last meeting of the five, which ended in deadlock on Wednesday.
The EU has put on the table cuts to its highest tariffs -- those over 90 percent -- of "more than" 50 percent. Lower tariffs would be fall by between 20 and 40 percent.
But 8 percent of tariff lines -- every item on which an individual tariff applies -- would fall less in order to shield politically sensitive goods such as beef and dairy.
The Cairns official said the EU offer gave an average cut of 25 percent -- and less if the "sensitive" products were included -- which was below the 36 percent agreed at the last global trade talks from 1986-93, the so-called Uruguay Round.
The United States and Australia say that the EU must come back with something between the 54 percent average cut proposed by the G20 developing country alliance and the 75 percent sought by the United States.
Alan Beattie and Victor Mallet also report that Pressure mounts on EU over Doha talks. (Financial Times, Oct 23)
They report that Pascal Lamy, WTO Director-General, has racheted up the pressure by suggesting that if the key elements of an agricultural agreement aren't reached in the next 7 to 10 days, it may be appropriate to cancel December's meeting of member country trade ministers in Hong Kong. Lamy doesn't have the authority to cancel the meeting, that would require agreement by all WTO member nations.
They also provide some details on potential E.U. offer rumors.
The E.U. is mulling a new offer:
The EU, which initially offered what the US says is a 24.5 per cent cut in farm tariffs, is working on a second and final offer which it hopes to present this week, proposing cuts averaging probably around 40 per cent. This would fall short of what the US says is the minimum acceptable offer - matching the G20's plan for an average 54 per cent cut.
Even making such a proposal will require Peter Mandelson, EU trade commissioner, to win backing from the member states in the face of objections from France...
Mr Mandelson wants a new offer at least to match the cuts agreed in the "Uruguay round", which reduced farm tariffs by an average of 36 per cent. "If there is another bid, it will be a final and non-negotiable one, and will be dependent on progress in the goods and services parts of the talks," the Commission official said.
William Schomberg reports that EU faces crunch week to save global trade talks (Reuters South Africa, Oct 23):
The EU and the four big trading countries -- the United States, Brazil, Australia and India -- are due to resume talks on Friday by telephone, a sign that ministers are not confident progress can be made.
Before that, the French will try again to tie Mandelson's hands when EU farm ministers meet in Luxembourg on Monday.
Revised October 24
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