The Custom-House

Have I got a deal for you

People actually have "sold" the Brooklyn Bridge.

Gabriel Cohen told the story of attempts to sell the Brooklyn Bridge a few days ago in the New York Times: For You, Half Price. (Nov 27):

Looking for Doha Support

Mobilizing the stars

Rock star Bono's African development NGO,  DATA , views trade as a potentially valuable development tool, and is lobbying for a productive Doha Round.

Last week, the Washington Post carried a story by Sebastian Mallaby on DATA-sponsored briefings to prepare Brad Pitt for a Doha advocacy role:  Trade and Aid: Stars Are Aligned  (Nov 21):

Mass murder by governments

Alex Tabarrok at Marginal Revolution passes on a note from investigator Rudy Rummel, with estimates of murders by 20th Century governments: Democide. 

Rummel estimates that governments murdered something like 174 million persons last century.  This does not include combat deaths; Rummel estimates that murders far exceeded combat deaths.

Draft Ministerial Declaration for Hong Kong

The first draft of a declaration for the Doha Round Hong Kong meeting of WTO member trade ministers was released today: DOHA WORK PROGRAMME. Preparations for the Sixth Session of the Ministerial Conference. Draft Ministerial Text  (Nov 26).

Why is this so difficult?

A Doha Round trade agreement should make most people better off.  It can play a role in reducing poverty in developing nations.  Why are the negotiations so difficult?  Why is this so painful?

In March, Aaditya Mattoo and Arvind Subramanian argued that the negotiations would only produce a modest result:  Why Prospects for Trade Talks are not Bright (Finance & Development, March 2005).

Mattoo and Subramanian noted that the pressure for past multilateral trade agreements has come from business interests in developed countries.

Many businesses may benefit enough to find that working for an agreement is a good investment (Global trade advocacy offers huge commercial returns,  Peter Gallagher, July 20, 2005).  People who might also benefit as individual consumers or workers, either may not see the connection between liberal trade rules and benefits, or may not benefit enough themselves to find an investment in this issue worthwhile.  Thus the importance of business leadership, although Mattoo and Subramanian don't get into this.

They do note, however, that this time business interests have been relatively disengaged.  And, Mattoo and Subramanian argue, why not:  Many developing countries have been reducing trade barriers unilaterally, often at the urging of the World Bank and IMF.  This reduces the incentive of businesses in developed countries to negotiate.  They can also get much of what they want through regional trade agreements.  Moreover, multilateral agreements take a long time to reach - bilateral or regional agreements may be quicker. 

Moreover, areas in which developing countries have special interest - agriculture, textiles, labor mobility, and services - are very sensitive for developed countries.

Doha Setback

The Doha Round talks suffered a setback this week, when the trade ministers of member nations failed to reach an agreement on a moderately ambitious deal for the Hong Kong meetings: Blame game starts as global trade talks fail to bring vital breakthrough (Frances Williams, Financial Times, November 10).

The Hong Kong meetings will still go forward, and the next step is to put together a draft text for that meeting.  WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy will try and produce this by the end of the month.  Williams reports:

A Doha Development Skeptic

Our word is our weapon is a development blog by Jim of North London.  Jim posts occasionally on the development dimension of the Doha Round.

Jim is skeptical that the Doha Round will benefit the world's poor: CGD Blog and thoughts on the Doha round :

Tuesday in Geneva

More than 20 trade ministers from WTO members meet at 2 PM this afternoon in Geneva for talks meant to  advance the Doha round negotiations.

Monday evening, representatives of the US, EU, Brazil, India, and Japan, met in the Indian embassy for six hours of negotiations.  The New Economist reported early Tuesday morning that, although the talks were productive, ultimately things didn't come together: WTO trade talk hopes fade .

Early Tuesday afternoon Richard Waddington and William Schomberg reported that trade ministers were now beginning to think about scaling back on the goals for Hong Kong: Trade ministers may have to delay WTO push  (Reuters, Nov 8).

Brazil and the Doha Round

This week's Economist has a special report on Brazil's agricultural potential: Brazilian agriculture. The harnessing of nature's bounty. (Economist, Nov 5, subscription required)

Brazil has enormous agricultural potential; a successful Doha Round may help to unlock it:

Working Towards a Hong Kong draft

The WTO's Hong Kong Doha Round meetings begin on December 13.  Pascal Lamy, the WTO's Director General, would like a draft declaration for the meetings by the middle of this month.