More than 20 trade ministers from WTO members meet at 2 PM this afternoon in Geneva for talks meant to advance the Doha round negotiations.
Monday evening, representatives of the US, EU, Brazil, India, and Japan, met in the Indian embassy for six hours of negotiations. The New Economist reported early Tuesday morning that, although the talks were productive, ultimately things didn't come together: WTO trade talk hopes fade .
Early Tuesday afternoon Richard Waddington and William Schomberg reported that trade ministers were now beginning to think about scaling back on the goals for Hong Kong: Trade ministers may have to delay WTO push (Reuters, Nov 8).
Scaling back the ambitions for the Hong Kong meeting does not necessarily mean scaling back the ambitions for the Doha Round as a whole. A lot could be done in 2006.
However there is a tradeoff. While a less ambitious Hong Kong summit means less chance of catastrophic failure there, it may lead to a change in psychological expectations for the Round and reduce pressure to play "catch-up" in 2006:
...Officials from key members of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) said it might not be possible to achieve a full blueprint for a treaty before a December meeting in Hong Kong to give the world economy a boost and help alleviate poverty.
"We may need a Hong Kong II," Brazilian Trade Minister Celso Amorim said on Tuesday ahead of a meeting of trade ministers from around the world...
"The moment you start reducing expectations, you risk introducing complacency," Mandelson [Peter Mandelson, chief EU trade negotiator - Ben] said, heading for the Geneva meeting which is due to stretch into Wednesday. "My view is that we should keep up the pressure to narrow the differences."...
Some ministers and senior trade officials feel the time has come to lower the target for Hong Kong to avoid a damaging failure like the conference in Cancun, Mexico, in 2003.
But they add that any delay could not lead to a weakening of the overall goals of the round -- slashing of rich nation farm subsidies and market-opening across the global economy -- or for a postponement of the round's final end-2006 deadline.
"I think that we may have to be content with a little less," Amorim said about Hong Kong. "But if that happens, it does not mean lowering the ambition of the round."
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