Frances Williams reports that the April 30 deadline for reaching an agreement on Doha Round negotiating modalities will be missed: WTO admits defeat on Doha deadline (Financial Times, April 23):
Pascal Lamy, director-general of the World Trade Organisation, will on Monday ask WTO members to work for a crucial deal on farm and industrial goods by early summer, after key trading powers acknowledged their self-imposed April 30 deadline was out of reach.
The meeting on Friday, attended by about 25 rich and poor WTO members agreed to call off plans for ministerial talks this week.
But they aren't giving up:
The WTO’s trade negotiations committee, which supervises the Doha global trade talks, will be asked on Monday to approve a plan involving continuous negotiations throughout May and the first half of June.
Though no new date has been set, the aim is to clinch the deal before the end of July, the target for decisions in other important areas of the round including liberalisation of trade in services. Many believe this will be the true “make-or-break” moment for the round.
Missing the July deadline would make it almost impossible to complete all the technical work required to draw up the final Doha package before US negotiating authority ends in mid-2007.
Nevertheless, it's hard to see an ambitious agreement emerging. I'm not aware that the E.U. has modified its position on agriculture, or that the large developing countries are willing to be more forthcoming on manufactured goods and services.
The U.S. has just lost a good Trade Representative (U.S.T.R.) and the replacement, while capable and experienced, doesn't yet have Senatorial approval, and will, in any event, have less influence with Congress than the last one. Any U.S.T.R. would be representing a significantly weakened administration. Many Congressional Democrats may see a bill as an opportunity to score public relations victories, and many Congressional Republicans are restless with the administration. The uncertainty all this creates would surely make it less likely for other nations to go out on a limb for an agreement.
While I'm willing to believe the details may be worked out from July to December, given modalities in early summer, and good will by all parties, the April 30 deadline was already said to be a tight one.
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