Rob Portman's move from USTR to Office of Management and Budget looks like a recognition by the Administration that it's unlikely to see significant additional progress in the Doha Round. (Changes raise doubts on US commitment to Doha , Alan Beattie, Financial Times, April 18). At the same time, his move makes further progress less likely.
Portman is to be replaced by his deputy, Susan Schwab: (Schwab’s nomination a signal of continuity, Alexander Kliment , Financial Times, April 18, 2006).
Schwab may be very capable. But turnover, and the associated reorganization, can't be good at this point. Moreover, she will lack Portman's stature with foreign negotiators and Congress. This quote from Kliment says a lot:
If Susan Schwab’s nomination to replace Rob Portman as US trade representative is confirmed by the Senate, the position will move from the hands of a seasoned politician with significant influence among Republicans in Congress to a trade expert and bureaucrat with academic roots.
While the administration would certainly like to have a trade agreement on its list of accomplishments, the continued negotiating impass makes the likelihood of a further important Doha agreements relatively low, and passage by Congress is not guaranteed. Given the increasing signs of weakness and fatigue within the administration, they must feel they have better uses for Portman.
The problems with the negotiations have gradually reduced Portman's marginal value as USTR, while the administration's problems have increased his marginal value elsewhere.
Here's a story on this from Paul Blustein in today's Washington Post: Hopes for Trade Talks Dim After Personnel Switch (April 19). Apparently not everyone is as unhappy as I am about this:
Critics of the administration's trade policy jubilantly asserted that the implications could go even beyond the WTO talks. They said the move reveals a lack of confidence on the administration's part that it will secure congressional approval for new bilateral trade agreements with countries such as Peru and Colombia.
"This does not bode well -- ha, ha, ha! -- for Bush's trade agenda. What a tragedy," said Lori Wallach, director of Public Citizen's Global Trade Watch, a group founded by Ralph Nader. "You don't take out a very effective player like Portman, who has good relations in Congress and on the international scene, when this whole agenda stands on the precipice, without knowing what that means."
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