Gregg Hitt speculated about potential futures for U.S. trade strategy, and the Doha Round, earlier this week ("Mapping Detours in Trade Talks. Doha Stalemate May Force U.S. to Narrow Goals, Seek Bilateral Deals" WSJ, May 3). Possible options included:
- Spending more time on bilateral free trade agreements with other countries
- Focus more on pursuing U.S. interests through the WTO dispute settlement mechanisms (to build support for the WTO in the U.S.)
- Rethink Doha. Here he cites former U.S. Undersecretary of Commerce for International Affairs Grant Aldonas, who argues that, while this is billed as a "development round" it has proceeded with a traditional focus on "a range of tariff lines and subsidies." Maybe we ought to work as if this really were a development round. Hitt paraphrases Aldonas to indicate that such talks, "could be designed to stimulate cross-border trade in areas such as communications and health care, 'where trade could grapple' with the real needs of the developing world."
- Doha light - accept that we are not going to get an ambitious agreement, salvage what we can, and end the negotiations. The problem he sees here, is that Congress might fail to ratify an unambitious agreement, that doesn't get the U.S. anything significant.
This last concern about a minimalist agreement received emphasis in a letter yesterday from a pro-Doha industry coalition, ABCDoha. The members of this group say they won't support a low-ambition agreement: Business coalition warns of failed WTO round (Reuters, May 4). The key paragraph from the text of the letter:
To be clear, ABCDoha considers a minimalist deal to be a failure. We will urge U.S. and non-U.S. negotiators to reject proposals for a "Doha light" deal that would produce only modest liberalization and reforms. In our eyes, such an outcome would constitute a wasted opportunity. A final package that misses the mark would draw little support from agriculture, business or consumer interests, making it likely to fail in Congress.
What about a "Sleeping Beauty" option - Doha goes to sleep, but does not die, until a future U.S. Congress provides a new administration renewed negotiating authority?
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