In yesterday's (June 28) Trade Negotiations Committee briefing, WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy indicated that Thursday "is left open for members to consult among themselves as many of their ministers and other delegates arrive in Geneva." (Lamy outlines schedule for ‘moment-of-truth’ meetings , WTO, June 28)
The most detailed information I have on what might happen today, and why it may be important, is from this Martin Khor story Sequencing the WTO "Ministerial" and Scenarios of the Stages it has to Clear (Third World Network, June 27):
On 29 June starting at 9.00am, a special session of the European Union's Council on General Affairs and External Relations will be held, at which the Trade and possibly Agriculture Ministers of EU states are expected. A day earlier, the EU's Committee 133 will also meet in Geneva.
The EU member states are expected to debate among themselves what mandate to give the EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson, especially in relation to whether the EU can increase its offer on agriculture market access (and if so what the bottom line will be) as well as what are the demands the EU is making on its partners.
On 29 June there will also be Ministerial meetings of the G6, the G20 and the G33, while the Indian Commerce Minister Kamal Nath is also to host a dinner for developing country Ministers. The G10 Ministers will also be in town; they hold a press conference also on 29 June. On 30 June the "Ministerial Green Room" to which some 30 members are invited is to start.
Thus, 29 June will be a crucial day in which the groupings prepare for the Green Room battle ahead with their own positions on what to offer and what they are prepared to accept from others.
In the view of one developing-country Ambassador, the EU meetings will be vital for deciding the level of ambition the EU is prepared to offer and to accept.
If the member states decide to put a limit to what Mandelson can offer in agriculture, and especially if they prevent him from significantly increasing the EC offer of an average 39% cut in tariffs, then that will put a dampener on the whole negotiation ahead. On Monday, the agriculture Ministers of France and Finland called on the EU not to make any new concessions on agricultural tariff reductions.
If however the EU states allow Mandelson to raise its tariff offer to 50% or close to that, and also to significantly decrease the number of sensitive products from 8%, then this would help activate the talks.
There's a lot more detail and discussion of the possible alternative negotiation scenarios in this fine story.
Alan Beattie, Frances Williams, and Delphine Strauss have an interesting article on the state of play in today's Financial Times: Head of WTO outlines terms for possible Doha accord (June 29).
Pascal Lamy speculates about what might work:
Though declining to offer a formal plan himself, Pascal Lamy, the WTO director-general, said yesterday: "If I was looking for a magic number . . . I would probably look around 20." He said this would mean the US adopting a $20bn ceiling for farm subsidies, developing countries cutting industrial tariffs to no more than 20 per cent and adoption of the G20's suggestion on farm tariffs.
An earlier version of the story had this insight from the French trade minister:
Christine Lagarde, French trade minister, said on Wednesday that emerging market countries would probably only make a real offer on industrial tariffs in the final stages of talks, reflecting what she said was characteristic Brazilian brinksmanship. She also said Brazil’s interests were sharply at odds with India’s wish to protect its farmers, and with China’s focus on cutting industrial goods tariffs. “We find countries with completely different interests at the heart of the same group.” Ms Lagarde said.
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