In a couple of days WTO trade ministers will gather to see if they can get the Doha Round trade negotiations moving.
This week's object is to reach an agreement on sets of general principles or "modalities" for agricultural reform and industrial tariff reform. The remainder of the year would then be barely enough time to fill in the details.
Two items the past week describe the mechanics of a meeting like this:
The International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD) "Bridges" newsletter has some details: End-June Meeting Starts To Take Shape Amidst Low Expectations (June 21):
Lamy said that the chairs of the agriculture and NAMA [non-agricultural market access (industrial tariffs, but also tariffs on natural resource products) - Ben] talks were expected to circulate initial draft modalities texts "on or around 19 June," after which they would be available for discussion in informal meetings of the negotiating groups open to the entire membership.
At time of writing, the texts had not been released, but sources expected both in time for a meeting on agriculture scheduled for the morning of 23 June. [these draft texts have been circulated, and may be found here: 2006 Modalities - Ben]
Following these initial talks, Lamy foresaw from 26 June a "more integrated overall consideration" of key unresolved issues in a variety of formats, centred on frequent informal meetings of the Trade Negotiations Committee (TNC). "It is my understanding that a number of ministers intend to take part in this consultative process from about 28 June," he added.
Lamy indicated that these discussions would culminate in a formal TNC session. This meeting has now been scheduled for 1 July, and may continue through the weekend until 3 July.
Process likely similar to July 2004, Hong Kong
Sources believe that the meetings at the end-June meeting will be structured similarly to the negotiations at the Hong Kong Ministerial Conference and those that produced the July 2004 Framework, with intensive informal heads-of-delegation meetings interspersed with invitation-only 'green room' gatherings. The formal TNC would likely be on 'standby,' ready to be convened to discuss whatever emerges from the informal meetings.
These green room gatherings of some 25-odd delegations generally include the most influential countries as well as representatives from every major bloc such as the G-20 [a group of developing countries with a special focus on agriculture - Ben], the G-33 [a group of developing countries interested in special protections from foreign competition - Ben], the African Group and the Least-developed Country Group -- the idea being that they will communicate the proceedings to fellow alliance members that were left outside the room.
In July 2004, some of the 30-40 ministers that had come to Geneva were not invited to participate in the green room meetings, prompting protests about unfair negotiating processes and a lack of transparency both from them and from non-governmental organisations (see BRIDGES Weekly, 3 August 2004). Civil society groups and some smaller delegations have expressed concern that this could happen again at the end of June.
Martin Khor provides some details for the Third World Network. Uphill battles for South in WTO's end-June process (June 20)
Regarding the end-of-month processes and events, there is no clear time-table yet, but several formats will be involved, some of them operating simultaneously. According to trade diplomats, there is high political interest since concrete modalities are at stake, and over 40 Ministers have indicated they may come, and many more countries may send Vice Ministers.
Questions still abound as to whether Ministers who come to Geneva can attend the "Ministerial Green Room" that will be convened by Pascal Lamy, presumably in his capacity as Chair of the Trade Negotiations Committee (TNC). Or whether, as expected, the Green Room will accommodate Ministers from only invited members.
The issues of transparency, participation and legitimacy can be expected to arise yet again, as uncertainty swirls around as to who is invited to the Green Room, on what criteria or basis, and on whose invitation.
According to diplomatic sources, on 28 June, a G6 [US, EU, Japan, Brazil, India, and Australia - Ben] Ministerial is expected to convene. On 29 June, a G20 Ministerial is expected in the morning, and a G33 Ministerial lunch and evening reception are also expected.
The "mini-Ministerial" (i. e. the Ministerial Green Room) involving some 20-30 members (the numbers and the names of members are not known) is expected to start on 29 June and then proceed fully on 30 June.
Also on 30 June, a meeting of the TNC is expected to be convened, to be open to all Members, and Ministers, senior officials and diplomats are expected to take part. Those not invited to the Green Room will have a forum in which to participate.
But the real negotiations will take place in the Ministerial Green Room. Some diplomats expect that if it becomes clear from the first day that no progress can be made, the meeting may be short. If enough progress is made, the Green Room may continue to the weekend (1 and 2 July).
Conclusions made at the Green Room are then expected to be brought to the TNC, which could be convened at short notice, to have them formally endorsed. That is, if those who are not party to the Green Room are agreeable to stamp their "Yes".
The above scenario of events, which diplomatic sources have painted, could of course be varied, depending on circumstances, including the views voiced by the WTO diplomats in the next days after the agriculture and NAMA draft modalities papers are issued.
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