U.S. voters rank trade issues relatively low on the list of things they're worried about, but they don't think foreign trade has been good for the U.S., suggests an early November poll of registered voters conducted by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal: Poll Suggests Clinton Is Vulnerable (John Harwood, November 8). Here is the detailed summary of poll results: Study #6077.
The poll is mainly concerned with the strengths and weaknesses of the different Presidential candidates and parties. Trade comes up in two questions.
First, the interviewer asked half the respondents, " Let me read you several issues. Please tell me the one or two, if any, where you feel America is most in need of a new direction and a new approach. Well, if you had to choose just two, which would you choose? *
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE
- Health care.............................................. 39 [217-218]
- Iraq ......................................................... 35
- Immigration ............................................. 29
- Foreign policy in places other than Iraq .... 22
- Family values issues................................ 20
- Global warming........................................ 13
- Trade ...................................................... 10
- Other (VOL)........................................... 1
- None of these........................................ -
- Not sure ................................................ 1
* Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A).
Second, the interviewer asked half the respondents, "Now I am going to read you two statements about foreign trade, please tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view.
Statement A: Foreign trade has been good for the U.S. economy, because demand for U.S. products abroad has resulted in economic growth and jobs for Americans here at home and has provided more choices for consumers.
Statement B: Foreign trade has been bad for the U.S. economy, because imports from abroad have reduced demand for American-made goods and cost jobs here at home. **
- Statement A/foreign trade has been good ..... 30 [329]
- Statement B/foreign trade has been bad....... 60
- Some of both (VOL) .................................... 6
- Neither (VOL).............................................. 1
- Not sure...................................................... 3
** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B).
I'd love to see how these responses interact with responses to other survey questions, but that's not possible from the report provided.
NBC/WSJ did a similar poll of likely Republican primary voters in early October: Republican Primary Voter Trade Views (October 5); Keeping Up To Date on American Trade Policy Views (Oct 8). The earlier poll asked similar - but exactly the same - questions of likely Republican primary voters and got similar results. Dan Ikenson (Keeping Up To Date...) pointed to a source of bias in the question phrasing:
Here is a link to the subject WSJ/NBC poll. Question 10 is the only question about trade, which gives two statements and asks the respondent to reveal which statement comes closer to his/her point of view.
Statement A: “Foreign trade has been good for the U.S. economy, because demand for U.S. products abroad has resulted in economic growth and jobs for Americans here at home and provided more choices for consumers.” (32% of Republicans agree)
Statement B: “Foreign trade has been bad for the U.S. economy, because imports from abroad have reduced U.S. demand for American-made goods, cost jobs here at home, and produced potentially unsafe products.” (59% of Republicans agree)
From these results, John Harwood concludes that “six in 10 Republicans in the poll agreed with a statement that free trade has been bad for the U.S. and said they would agree with a Republican candidate who favored tougher regulations to limit foreign imports.”
But as you can see, there is a clear bias in the manner of phrasing the questions. You’re not agreeing that foreign trade is good or bad, but that it’s good or bad because… And respondents are more likely to be familiar with one of the offered consequences of trade. Certainly, the issue of “potentially unsafe products” is fresh on our minds, thus respondents are basically escorted to that answer.
The November version of the question drops the reference to unsafe products.
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