The Custom-House

Where Senator Clinton Stands on Trade

Luiza Savage takes a careful look at Clinton's campaign rhetoric on trade:  Where do the Democratic contenders really stand on NAFTA? (McLeans.ca, Dec 6).

"Intellectual Property Rights and International Trade"

The Congressional Research Service has just released a new report on Intellectual Property Rights and International Trade (Shayerah IIias and Ian Fergusson, December 20). 

This backgrounder reviews the issues, the importance of intellectual property to the economy, and the steps the U.S. takes to protecting its international interests in these rights.  Here's the executive summary:

Deanna Okun - Nominated Deputy USTR

The Bush Administration has nominated Deanna Okun to take the place of retiring Deputy USTR Karan Bhatia (White House Personnel Announcement, Dec 18).

There are three deputy USTRs. Congressional approval of the appointment is required. Bhatia's USTR biography says that his responsibilities included:

As Deputy USTR, Ambassador Bhatia is a key member of U.S. Trade Representative Schwab's senior management team.  His portfolio includes overseeing U.S. trade relations with East Asia (including China and Japan), South Asia (including India), Southeast Asia, and Africa.  His responsibilities also include supervising USTR’s functional offices handling trade capacity building, environmental, labor, and pharmaceutical issues, and serving as USTR’s designee on the boards of the Overseas Private Investment Corporation and the Millennium Challenge Corporation.

Did the U.S. Cede Sovereignty to the WTO?

Dani Rodrik wonders why the U.S. has chosen to cede so much sovereignty to the WTO over trade (Isn't the WTO just so amazing?, Dec 20).  I think its wrong to say there has been a significant surrender of sovereignty:

Uneasy About Globalization and Immigration

New poll results show declining support for globalization and immigration among American adults (Americans' Anti-Global Turn May Stir Race for President, Gregg Hitt, Wall Street Journal, Dec 20; Survey results report). 

Democrats tended to be relatively more skeptical of liberal trade, Republicans of liberal immigration.

More Info on Presidential Candidates' Trade Positions

Duncan Hollis reports reports that the American Society for International Law (ASIL) is surveying the Presidential candidates on their positions on 14 international law issues: ASIL, Presidential Candidates & International Law (Opinio Juris, Dec 14).

Three questions deal explicitly with trade questions:

• What would be your administration’s international trade policy?
• Would you seek any modification of existing trade agreements?
• What would be your approach to the WTO and future global trade talks?

Four candidates (Clinton, Obama, Edwards, and Kucinich) have answered so far.   As a bonus, one of the commenters lists the international law advisors for five campaigns.

The answers are short.  There's not a lot of detail; the candidates focus on their key message points.  So where does, for example, Obama stand:

Who wants freer trade? And what do they think will happen?

In October the German Marshall Fund conducted phone interviews with adults in six European countries and in the United States.  The Fund was interested in attitudes towards globalization and U.S.-European economic integration.

Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI) were used in all countries except in Poland and Slovakia where interviews were conducted face-to-face due to the low phone penetration rate. In all countries a random sample of approximately 1,000 men and women, 18 years of age and older, were interviewed. Interviews were conducted between September 10, 2007, and September 24, 2007.

The survey was wide ranging.  The results may be found at the Fund's website.

Amongst other things, the interviewer asked if the respondent were in favor of freer trade.  This question was posed relatively early in the interview.  I'm interested here in the U.S. responses to this question. 

Previous questions has explored whether the respondent was satisfied with the way things were going in the U.S. and with the U.S. economy, and with how they felt about several issues including globalization, international trade, the WTO, and foreign investment in the U.S.

The interviewer asked,

I am now going to ask you about freer trade, that is to say making it easier to buy and sell products internationally by reducing tariffs and other barriers to trade.  Which of the following two statements about freer trade comes closest to your view?

The respondent could be in favor, not in favor, or fail to give an answer.

This is a "change" not a level question.  The question didn't ask the interviewer to evaluate whether or not trade had been a net benefit in the past or was good currently.  The question asks about a policy change from the status quo. 

The respondent is only able to give a one-way response - either in favor or freer trade or not.  People who think we should stay were we are, or who think we should add to the barriers to trade, both have to give the same, "I am not in favor..." response. 

Sixty percent of the respondents said, "I am in favor of freer trade"; 33% said, " I am not in favor of freer trade."  Seven percent didn't know or refused to answer.  Are people who think we should add to trade barriers more likely to refuse to answer?  If so, some of this response should be included in the "I am not in favor..." category.

Interestingly, support for freer trade declined with a move from left to right across the political spectrum:

What did Americans think about trade at the start of December?

Trade is down somewhat on the list of issues Americans are concerned about, but to the extent it's an issue, they don't think free trade has been good for the economy, according to new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll results: A Surprise Showing For Huckabee: The Tortoise Is Closing In On The Hare .

This is a wide ranging poll evaluating with support for the different presidential candidates, and opinions about key issues.  The poll was conducted by telephone between November 30 and December 3. 

A Slew of New Reports on Globalization

Iana Dreyer (Global Conditions) surveys the new age cohort of annual year-end reports on globalization and world trade in her post Annual Christmas presents (Dec 8). 

She provides links to Foreign Policy's updated Globalization Index (and for comparison the last KOF Globalization Index from the Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research), the German Marshall Fund's report on its September survey of attitudes towards globalization and trade in the U.S. and Europe, the WTO's recent trade report with its history multilateral trade agreements since WWII, and the report of the Warwick Commission on the way forward for multilateral trade.

Global Conditions was a year old on November 11.  Dreyer has just taken a job as an analyst in Brussels with the European Centre for International Political Economy.  Congratulations on both counts!! 

Administration debates best rules for FDI security reviews

The Administration is still tied up in an internal debate over an executive order to implement changes to the way we look at the security implications of foreign investments, reports Bill Gertz of the Washington Times: Justice, DHS 'still object' to CFIUS order (Dec 6).  Changes are required under a new law passed earlier this year, but there are different ways to make them.