How Have Clinton, McCain, and Obama Been Voting on Trade Issues?

To supplement the campaign statements with information on the Presidential candidates' trade records, I've taken a look at the voting records of the three Senators among the leading candidates.

McCain voted "pro-trade" in all the 13 roll calls I looked at in which both he and Clinton voted.  Clinton voted pro-trade in 54% of them.  I haven't scored Obama because he only entered the Senate in 2005 and wasn't there to vote in more than half of the roll calls included here.  However, from 2005-2007, he and Clinton voted the same way in each roll call I've included.

Clinton tended to vote for bilateral ("free") trade agreements (FTAs) (she voted yes in seven of the eight FTA votes included here).  She voted against Trade Promotion Authority (Fast Track) in 2002, she voted twice to limit U.S. compliance to NAFTA commitments to allow Mexican long-haul trucking, and she voted against tabling the Chinese Currency Act in 2005 (a vote to keep it alive).

The remainder of the post consists of a table summarizing the votes, and some notes on the procedure.

The votes were selected using votes listed as key Senate trade votes by the Brookings Institution, and using trade voting "scorecards" prepared by Global Citizen's Public Trade Watch.  I've only added one vote - a September 2007 Senate vote preventing the start-up of a NAFTA-related demonstration project for Mexican long-haul truckers.  This is similar to a vote already in the Global Trade Watch scorecard.  These sources leave out whole subject areas with trade implications - agricultural subsidies, for example, and Federal budget deficits.

Votes were selected to cover the period in which both Hillary Clinton and John McCain served together in the Senate (2001-2007).  You probably don't have to be warned that the 13 votes used here are not a complete set of votes that might bear on trade. 

I "scored" each candidate on their commitment to trade as demonstrated by these votes.  I used the 13 roll calls in which both Clinton and McCain voted.  "Pro-trade" votes were coded "1" and other votes were coded "0". 

Votes were not weighted for their significance - for example, although the votes on trade promotion authority in 2002 are probably more important than the vote on the FTA with Morocco, they have been weighted equally (although I've used three trade promotion related votes, so maybe some of this weighting is picked up).

I've placed "pro" and "anti" interpretations on these votes.  Some might question these assignments.  In some cases reasonable persons with a strong pro-trade orientation might have taken what I've described as an anti-trade stance.  This table is not meant to evaluate the tradeoffs associated with the votes.  However, a person who tends to take the identified pro-trade position in each case is more likely to weight the benefits of trade more heavily in these trade-offs. 

As an aside - let me draw your attention to the website GovTrack.us.  This is an extremely well-organized access point for information on Congressional actions.  Many of the table links provide additional information from the site.

Other posts on the current election, and U.S. trade politics, may be found here: Politics . 

I'd also like to draw your attention to several posts during the past week on Barak Obama's likely trade stance.  Jonathan Dingel posted an excerpt from a Guardian article by Daniel Koffler, which argued that Obama had a deeper understanding of the power of markets than other Democratic and Republican candidates: Is Obama better on globalization? Simon Lester agreed: Is Obama Better Than Clinton On Free Trade?  Lester points to this post by Greg Mankiw to illustrate Obama's grasp of economic issues: The Pigou Club watches the debates .  Emmanuel disagreed, pointing to Obama's record on agricultural and ethanol subsidies (Obama represents Illinois, an important agricultural state): Obama is the Protectionist's Choice, Too.  Emmanuel's post also suggests the sorts of roll calls that might be used to expand this data set, and the potential for changing the relative standing of the candidates reached here.  To the extent that the roll call information sheds light on this debate, it suggests that Obama and Clinton may behave similarly.

Issue	Note	Clinton	McCain	Obama
Mexican long-haul trucking in the U.S. under NAFTA	Senate rollcall #252 on July 26, 2001   This was a vote on a motion to end a filibuster on the FY 2002 Department of Transportation Appropriations Act.  According to the Congressional Research Service summary, the bill barred the use of appropriated funds for the review or processing of an application by a Mexican motor carrier for authority to operate beyond the U.S. municipalities and commercial zones until such carriers have complied with certain motor carrier safety standards and certain other requirements have been met.  Those in favor of the filibuster thought the bill violated NAFTA commitments, others argued it was necessary for highway safety. Vote to end the filibuster is coded 0, vote to continue is coded "1".	0	1	NIS
Jordan FTA	Senate vote on September 24, 2001.  Voice vote.	VV	VV	NIS
U.S.-Vietnam bilateral agreement	Senate roll call # 291 on October 3, 2001 House Joint Resolution 51 Approving the extension of nondiscriminatory treatment with respect to the products of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam.  Yes is "1".	1	1	NIS
Kerry Amendment to Fast Track legislation	Senate roll call #121 on May 21, 2002 A vote to table an amendment to the Fast Track legislation 2002.  The amendment have changed the guidance to U.S. negotiators  on investor protections.  Kerry sought to reduce protections for foreign investors; others felt that provisions in the bill adequately limited foreign protections, and were concerned over  potential threats to the investor protections Americans would enjoy overseas if foreigners adopted reciprocal measures.  A vote to table the amendment is coded as "1".	0	1	NIS
Fast track	Senate roll call #130 on May 23, 2002 promotion authority.  Yes is "1".	0	1	NIS
Fast track conference	Senate roll call # 207 on August 1, 2002 vote to invoke cloture and cut off debate on the trade promotion authority legislation.  The vote was on the product of the House-Senate Conference Committee on the bill.  Vote to invoke cloture is coded "1".	0	1	NIS
Chile FTA	Senate roll call #319 on July 31, 2003.   Yes is "1".	1	1	NIS
Singapore FTA	Senate roll call #318 on July 31, 2003 vote on July 31, 2003.  Yes is "1".	1	1	NIS
Australian FTA	Senate roll call # 156 on July 15, 2004.  Yes is "1".	1	1	NIS
Morocco FTA	Senate roll call #159 on July 21, 2004.  Yes is "1".	1	1	NIS
Chinese Currency Act	Senate roll call #86 on April 6, 2005 on motion to table S.Amdt. 309: To authorize appropriate action if the negotiations with the People's Republic of China regarding China's undervalued currency are not successful., amending S. 600 [109th]: Foreign Affairs Authorization Act, Fiscal Years 2006 and 2007.  A motion to table is a motion to kill.  Yes vote is coded as a "1".	0	1	0
CAFTA	Senate roll call #170 on June 30, 2005 vote on June 30, 2005.  Yes is "1".	0	1	0
Bahrain FTA	Senate vote on December 13, 2005.  Passed by unanimous consent.  All coded as "1".	1	1	1
Oman FTA	Senate roll call #250 on September 19, 2006.  Yes is "1".	1	1	1
Mexican long-haul trucking in the U.S. under NAFTA	Senate roll call # 331 on September 11, 2007 on S.Amdt. 2797: To prohibit the establishment of a program that allows Mexican truck drivers to operate beyond the commercial zones near the Mexican border., amending H.R. 3074: Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies Appropriations.  Vote against the amendment coded as "1".	0	FTV	0
Peru FTA	Senate roll call #413 on December 4, 2007  Although none of these Senators voted on this legislation.  All of them supported the agreement (Brookings: candidates positions on trade issues)	FTV	FTV	FTV
Score	"Pro-trade" votes divided by all votes.  Only counts the 13 votes when both Clinton and McCain voted.	54%	100%	Not calculated
Codes	NIS is "Not in Senate" VV is "Voice vote" FTV is "Failed to vote"

Revised later on February 3 to include references to the blog discussion of Obama.

Comments

[Emmanuel]

This is a great compilation, Ben. It's good to actually see their congressional voting records side by side.

Kudos on the new website look. Also, I didn't know Borjas had a blog.

[apotheon]

Small problem with that -- and you know it, to judge by the way you scare-quoted "free": Those so-called "free" trade agreements are about anything but "free" trade. Real free trade is just that -- free. Not regulated. Not brokered. Not politically maneuvered. Just free. Contrary to that, these "free" trade agreements are mostly about limits, not freedoms.

[Economists for Obama]

We have a close comparison of statements by Clinton and Obama on trade here:

http://econ4obama.blogspot.com/2008/01/obama-economic-policy-clinton-vs-obama.html

[Paula Stern]

It is useful to see one gauge of making such an assessment. It must be said that Congress plays a limited role in trade policy. In spite of the fact that the Constitution gives Congress the power to regulate foreign commerce, Congress is limited to following, not leading the President. Thus the votes of these three Senators says little about how they would shape policy once one becomes the occupant of the White House. (The data points on Senator Obama are slim.)

Hillary Clinton has been most the most forward thinking by shaping practical solutions (training, education, controlling health care costs, etc.) to equip a competitive workforce to assure that Americans will benfit from global technological and commercial change.

[charlie]

I always like to see economists keeping these guys....urrr and girl in line.

I like your blog, and fits in with what the community of bloggers that I am putting together at http://political bear.com.

Why don't you check it out. We would like to add you to the community. Oh, it's free and you can import your typepad blog once you sign up.

[Kristi in Hawaii]

I appreciate the informaton on this site. I was amazed at the number of times Obama didn't vote. He wasn't even in the Senate (NIS). How can we get a clear idea of his position on any particular policy if he doesn't even show up to vote for it. Hillary clearly has a grasp on these issues and more importantly shows she cares by showing up to vote to toughen trade standards, Obama talks and talks and talks and even when journalist ask him a tough question on NAFTA, he deflects the answer by changing the subject and they just let him get away with it.

[Roberta]

Is it true that John McCain has had a pro-liberal voting record in Congress, and specifically, what liberal policies has he voted for?

[Happy Dae]

I think this is a useful comparison. I'd also like to see a comparison of their Human Rights stances, the War on Terriers, and the committees to which they belong.

Thank you!
Happy Dae.
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[Nicole]

It occurs to me that one might be interested in what the protection is for. If, for instance, banana subsidies help some poor banana producers around the world but harm some that is one thing. If, corn subsidies are causing hunger around the world but benefit US farmers that is another thing.

Just a thought, -Nicole

[Jema]

apotheon has it correct... these so called "free" trade agreements are anything BUT free! Managed trade is the better word. Who would be impressed with a high voting score of managed trade? Thousands of Americans have lost their jobs thanks to these managed trade agreements. McCain's high score here definitely puts him in a unfavorable position.

[andrew yarnot]

What the hell is 0 1 or NIS - typical void of common sense

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for example, although the votes on trade promotion authority in 2002 are probably more important than the vote on the FTA with Morocco, they have been weighted equally (although I've used three trade promotion related votes, so maybe some of this weighting is picked up