What Have Americans Thought About Trade?

In 2001 Kenneth Scheve and Matthew Slaughter took a look at 60 years worth of U.S. opinion polls with questions on trade - over 500 questions asked between 1938 and 2000.  They what they found in a short book published by the Peterson Institute in 2001: Globalization and the Perceptions of American Workers. 

Most of their conclusions are illustrated with questions from the 1990s, and are not related in detail to the broader set of questions examined.  That makes it hard to tell how much their conclusions depend on the few questions they use for examples, or on a broader review of the complete set of questions.  Also, a lot has also happened in the last seven years.  That said, here are 15 of the things they found:

1. People are aware of the benefits from trade.  Almost 90% think that trade increases product variety, nearly 60% think it lowers prices, about 70% think it lowers prices for low income families, about 75% think it imposes competitive disciplines on U.S. firms, and just over 50% think imports are associated with job creation in industries that are not themselves deeply involved in trade.
2. It is less clear that respondents think these benefits flow from unilateral liberalization.  "The following question suggests that a large majority of Americans think in a mercantilist fashion - generally assuming that running trade surpluses is beneficial and that trade protection is a good way to do so - believing that lower US trade barriers are a good idea onluy if other countries also lower their trade barriers."  and "...it is worth noting that public opinion scholars have observed a norm of "fair play" or "reciprocity" in individual attitudes about a wide range of subjects..."
3. "...a large majority of Americans think that trade, at least with low-wage countries, pressures American wages."  Majorities can be found to agree that trade has led to a lower standard of living and inequality.
4. Americans are about equally divided on whether or not trade creates or destroys net jobs (the difference between new jobs and jobs that are lost).  A lot depends on the way the question is posed.  When the question is posed with two options - create or destroy - answers are about equally divided.  When a third option is added along the lines of "trade creates and destroys about equally", "...this additional option seems to be selected by the majority of those who would have responded that trade creates jobs.  A plurality believes that trade destroys jobs."  When the question is framed with a presumption that jobs are destroyed or at best there is no impact, a large majority plump for destroy.
5. Jobs questions often don't distinguish clearly between gross (total job loss, or total job gain) and net (the difference between loss and creation) job impacts.
6. "When asked a question that mentions both benefits and costs of trade, a plurality or majority of respondents choose the answer emphasizing the costs, not the benefits."
7. Respondents claim they are willing to pay more for products to protect American jobs.  In a pair of questions from 1998-99 they were willing to incur costs costs of $40 to $50 per family per month to buy American.
8. "When asked a trade policy question that does not mention trade's benefits and costs, a plurality or majority of respondents still oppose policies aimed at freer trade."  This type of question avoids potential framing issues involved in describing the benefits and costs of trade.  People not only think that government should take steps to impede freer trade, they think government can overcome advances in communications and transportation, and actually do it.
9. A question framing issue to watch for - "Americans are more likely to support policies (trade and otherwise) that maintain the status quo rather than initiate change."
10. "Respondents are more likely to support international trade when it is described broadly either without direct reference to US trade policy or without any reference to policy at all."  "...support also seems higher when the question is phrased without direct reference to just the United States but more vaguely to agreements in general."
11. "The results of our regressions... strongly support the hypothesis that individuals' skill levels as measured by education and income - determine trade policy preferences.  Little evidence is found consistent with the hypothesis that a person's industry of employment influences policy preferences."
12. "There is clear evidence that homeowners living in counties with a larger share of employment in sectors with comparative disadvantage are more likely to oppose trade liberalization.  This seems to be because regional housing values depend, among other things, on the amount of regional economic employment in trade-exposed sectors.  These results suggest a further connection between individual economic welfare and public opinion about trade policy.  In addition to current labor income driving preferences as in standard trade models, preferences also depend on asset values.
13. People don't know much about the details of trade policy.  There is nothing unusual about this; it is also holds for other policy issues.  "...near the height of congressional debate about normalizing trade relations with China, less than half of Americans had heard about this trade agreement."
14. There was a decline in public support for trade in the 1970s, about the time that labor market outcomes for the less skilled began to deteriorate.  For example, there was an increase in the numbers of persons favoring higher tariffs sometime in the 1970s.  "...survey questions whose wording presumes trade-related job losses became more common in the early 1970s, around the time when important adverse wage patterns appeared in the US labor market."
15. "Survey evidence indicates that Americans are more likely to support liberalization when it is explicitly linked with assistance aimed at minimizing labor-market costs."

Scheve and Slaughter also looked at questions on immigration and foreign direct investment.  Those aren't dealt with here.

More posts on public opinion on trade: Public opinion.