Arik Levinson and Scott Taylor look carefully, and find evidence that industries whose costs were increased most by environmental regulation had the largest increases in net imports. They were looking at U.S. regulations and trade with Canada and Mexico - this isn't attributable to NAFTA however, their data set covered 1977-1986.
Thanks to Rob Elliott for the pointer: Unmasking the pollution haven effect (Feb 14, 2008). The working paper is here: Unmasking the Pollution Haven Effect (February 2006).
The abstract:
We use theory and empirics to examine the effect of environmental regulations on trade flows. A simple model demonstrates how unobserved heterogeneity, endogeneity, and aggregation issues bias standard measurements of this relationship. A reduced-form estimate of the model, using data on U.S. regulations and trade with Canada and Mexico for 130 manufacturing industries from 1977 to 1986, indicates that industries whose abatement costs increased most experienced the largest increases in net imports. For the average industry, the change in net imports we ascribe to regulatory costs amounting to 10% of the total increase in trade volume over the period.
There are other trade and pollution haven posts here: Pollution haven.
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