The Custom-House

Those EPI job loss estimates

Both Clinton and Obama have based dramatic claims about trade-related job loss on Economic Policy Institute (EPI) analysis (Where are these numbers coming from?).

Levinson and Taylor Find a Pollution Haven Effect

Arik Levinson and Scott Taylor look carefully, and find evidence that industries whose costs were increased most by environmental regulation had the largest increases in net imports.  They were looking at U.S. regulations and trade with Canada and Mexico - this isn't attributable to NAFTA however, their data set covered 1977-1986.

Thanks to Rob Elliott for the pointer: Unmasking the pollution haven effect (Feb 14, 2008).  The working paper is here: Unmasking the Pollution Haven Effect (February 2006).

The abstract:

Was China's Accession to the WTO Bad for Chinese Air Quality?

Probably not, find Haakon Vennemo, Kristin Aunan, Jianwu He, Tao Hu, Shantong Li and Kristin Rypd3al: Environmental impacts of China's WTO-accession (Center For International Climate and Environmental Research working paper, Oslo, 2005); Environmental impacts of China's WTO-accession (Ecological Economics, February 2008):

Obama/Clinton Tiptoe Around NAFTA in Texas

There are parts of Texas where they like NAFTA.  Consequently, despite poll results showing that a plurality of likely Texas Democratic voters disapprove of NAFTA, Clinton and Obama have toned down there rhetoric: Nafta Bashing Ends at Texas Line (Amy Chozick and Nick Timiraos, Wall Street Journal, March 3):

After weeks of hammering the North American Free Trade Agreement on campaign stops in Ohio, the Democratic presidential candidates are singing a different tune in Texas.

Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have had to adjust their messages as they have shuffled between hard-hit Ohio and robust Texas, where Nafta is largely seen as an economic boost to the state's border communities.

Saturday, Sen. Clinton dedicated her stops in Fort Worth and Dallas to talk of national security. Friday, she focused a speech in Waco on veteran's rights, because Texas has a large military population. Sen. Obama is keeping his Texas message squarely set on uniting the country. He omitted mention of Nafta at a rally here Friday night that attracted 8,000 people....

Five Reasons Jagdish Bhagwati Thinks Obama is Better on Trade Than Clinton

Obama’s free-trade credentials top Clinton’s (Financial Times, March 3).  His explanation about the differences in trade orientation of the UAW, Teamsters, and Service Employees International is especially interesting: