Do People Think Trade Is Good, or Bad?

The New York Times published new polling results today.  Three of the questions dealt with trade.  Here's the link to the polling results: The New York Times/CBS News Poll.  The pollsters contacted 1,368 adults by phone between March 28 and April 2.

When the respondents were asked, "On balance, do you think trade with other countries — both buying and selling products — is good for the U.S. economy, or is it bad for the U.S. economy, or does it have no effect?" they tended to think it was good.  The Times supplied the answers to these questions from four previous years.  Here they are:

   

In each year a majority answered that trade was good.  There was a slight decline from the early and mid-nineties to 2006, and a stronger decline in the last two years.  The 2008 results look distinctly different from the others; this is the only year in which there was widespread concern that we were entering a recession. 

These results are consistent with this conclusion reached by Kenneth Scheve and Matthew Slaughter in their survey of trade polls back to 1938 (Globalization and the Perceptions of American Workers, Peterson Institute, 2001), who found that "Respondents are more likely to support international trade when it is described broadly either without direct reference to US trade policy or without any reference to policy at all."

Later the respondents were asked, "Which of the following statements comes closer to your opinion — trade restrictions are necessary to protect domestic industries, or free trade must be allowed, even if domestic industries are hurt by foreign competition?"

This doesn't seem to me to be a well phrased question.  It focuses entirely on what respondents are going to see as bad outcomes, and implies that free trade is something done under compulsion ("must"). The nature of the restrictions is left very vague. In any event, here's what people have been answering over the years - the trends may still be interesting:

A majority of the respondents in each year took the "restrictions necessary" position, and the majority has increased over the last three years.  Scheve and Slaughter found that "When asked a question that mentions both benefits and costs of trade, a plurality or majority of respondents choose the answer emphasizing the costs, not the benefits."  Here there are only have costs, and we get a majority.

Respondents were asked what they thought the most important economic problem facing the country was.  Twenty percent identified fuel costs, 11% identified jobs and unemployment, 8% identified the mortgage crisis, and 6% identified housing. "Jobs going overseas/ outsourcing of jobs' was selected by 4%, "Foreign Trade / balance of trade" was the choice of another 2%, and "Immigration" was selected by 1%.

Trade questions were a small part of the survey.  The results are covered by DAVID LEONHARDT and MARJORIE CONNELLY here: Weak Economy Sours Public’s View of Future, New Poll Finds (April 3).  The background to the trade results is a general unhappiness with the way things are going right now:

Americans are more dissatisfied with the country’s direction than at any time since the New York Times/CBS News poll began asking about the subject in the early 1990s, according to the latest poll.

In the poll, 81 percent of respondents said they believed that “things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track,” up from 69 percent a year ago and 35 percent in early 2003....

More posts on public opinion about trade may be found here: Public Opinion.

Minor edits on July 6, 2008.

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