Paola Conconi, Giovanni Facchini, and Maurizio Zanardi look at the determinants of Congressional votes for and against fast track and trade promotion authority: Fast track authority: trade policy or politics? (May 21, 2008,VOX, this is a summary of a working paper to which they link):
...Our theoretical model predicts that congresspersons from constituencies with higher stakes in import-competing industries will tend to vote against TPA, while representatives of more export-oriented constituencies may vote in favour or against, depending on the degree of protectionism of the majority of Congress. To understand this result, notice that, when the executive lacks TPA, it is as if Congress were to negotiate directly with foreign executives. More “liberal” congressmen then realise that they may be able to extract better concessions from the partner country if they let a conservative majority negotiate rather than the President, since the latter is more willing to enter an agreement. This is in line with results obtained in the literature on strategic delegation, which show that principals may gain by delegating decision-making power to status quo-biased agents, to increase their “bargaining power” in negotiations....
Is this theoretical argument consistent with the facts? In order to answer this question, we conduct an empirical investigation of the determinants of legislators’ voting behaviour on fast track authority since its inception in 1974. The results are consistent with our model; in particular, the degree of protectionism of the majority that would form in Congress to negotiate a free trade agreement is an important determinant of the voting decision. The empirical analysis also points out the role of additional factors, which can help explain the current situation. First, over time fast track authority has become less popular among U.S. legislators, reflecting growing concerns on the effects of “globalisation”. Second, members of the Democratic Party are much less likely to vote in favour of fast track. These two findings, combined with the fact that we are in Presidential election year, make it not surprising that the Democrat majority in Congress is now firmly against granting fast track to the outgoing administration.
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