Applied to the Czechs:
On July 8 in Prague the United States and the Czech Republic signed an agreement on a U.S. radar system on the Czech Republic’s territory as part of the antiballistic missile shield. On July 10 Russia’s oil pipeline monopoly Transneft announced that oil deliveries to the Czech Republic were being cut from the contracted volume of 500,000 tons down to 300,000 tons for the month of July. Transneft did not mention the reasons for this deep cut and did not specify whether supplies would fully resume after July (Interfax, July 10).
Whether the signing of the Czech radar agreement triggered Russian retaliation through the oil supply cut is a matter of conjecture. In any case, maintaining uncertainty about the reasons behind supply cuts and forcing the target country to guess is a key element in Russia’s misuse of energy supplies as a political instrument. This uncertainty provides deniability for Russia and delays an effective response from the target country and its European partners. Even if the cut turns out not to have been politically motivated, it introduces an element of intimidation into the relationship by reminding the target country that Russia can use this instrument politically next time....
Vladimir Socor reporting: Russia Cuts Oil Supplies to Czech Republic Without Explanation.
July 18, 2007: corrected title, replacing "gas" with "oil."
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