The Custom-House

McCain and Obama on Northeast Asia

Shawn Beilfuss looks at Obama's and McCain's opinions on U.S. political and economic relations with the Northeast Asian countries: U.S. Presidential Candidates on Foreign Affairs/trade with Northeast Asia. Each country in the region - Japan, China, North and South Korea, Russia, and Taiwan - gets separate treatment. 

Could the Byrd Amendment Return?

Robert Byrd.  AP photo from Wall Street Journal

In August the Wall Street Journal reported that Senators Robert Byrd (D-WVa) and Sherrod Brown (D- OH) were testing the waters for reinstatement of the Byrd Amendment.  The Journal referred to:

...subterranean efforts to revive the "Byrd Amendment," a nasty trade law that offers U.S. companies a double reward for seeking tariff help from Washington.

Senator Robert Byrd (D., W.Va.) and a few bipartisan pals snuck this protectionist gift into law in 2000 by attaching it to a spending bill. Congress repealed it in 2005, but not before the provision did great harm to America's trading reputation and U.S. exporters after being declared illegal by the World Trade Organization. Now with a new Congress, and in an election year, Mr. Byrd and Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown are once again poised to sneak the provision into law.

A draft "Dear Colleague" letter of anonymous (but probably Byrd-Brown) provenance has been circulating in the Senate referring to "strong support for legislation to reinstate" the 2000 law, whose repeal "was a terrible mistake." Meanwhile, Sen. Byrd has put customs and duties language in a pending appropriations bill -- a red flag to those who know how such "placeholder" language could be expanded at the last minute to revive his 2000 act.

"Financial Turmoil and U.S. Power"

The Council of Foreign Relations has begun a new forum on Financial Turmoil and U.S. Power.   Sebastian Mallaby leads off with a short introductory essay.  Invited contributors will be looking at whether the U.S. "capacity to sustain an international role may have been compromised" (or was German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck right that “the United States will lose its superpower status in the world financial system”).

Mallaby starts the discussion with three specific questions: (1) Will U.S. growth slow relative to that of its rivals?; (2) Will it become harder to sustain the pre-eminence of the dollar?; (3) Will American foreign policy be compromised by mounting indebtedness?

The invited contributors are :

• Adam Posen
• Arvind Subramanian
• Brad W. Setser
• Brink Lindsey
• Charles Calomiris
• Daniel Drezner
• Desmond Lachman
• Heidi Crebo-Rediker
• James K. Galbraith
• Jeffrey Frankel
• Joseph Nye
• Megan McArdle
• Michael Mandelbaum
• Nicholas Eberstadt
• Richard Medley
• Robert Litan
• Roger Kubarych

Trade in the Colorado Senate Race: Udall vs Schaffer

Two congressmen are competing for an open Senate seat in Colorado.  Democrat Mark Udall is just ahead of Republican Bob Schaffer (Rasmussen reports):

The U.S. Senate race in Colorado has gotten even closer over the past month. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state now finds Democrat Mark Udall with a modest 46% to 44% edge over Republican Bob Schaffer.

In August, Udall led the race by a 48% to 41% margin. The gap has steadily decreased since Udall’s biggest lead in mid-June. The two men are competing to replace retiring Republican Senator Wayne Allard....

Udall has been a congressman since 1998.  His record from the Cato Institute (In the Cato figure each axis goes from 0% to 100%. The higher an "X" is along the vertical axis the greater the opposition to subsidies, the further an "X" is to the right the greater the opposition to trade barriers):

Trade in the Minnesota Senate Race: Coleman, Franken, and Barkley

First term incumbent Republican Senator Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken (the comedian) are neck and neck in Minnesota:

Republican incumbent Norm Coleman has inched ahead of Al Franken in Minnesota’s hotly contested U.S. Senate race, with the introduction of a third-party candidate having virtually no impact on the contest so far.

Coleman, who is seeking a second term in the Senate, is ahead of Franken, a TV comedy writer and longtime Democratic activist, by a statistically insignificant one percentage point, 48% to 47%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

The third party candidate, polling 3%, is the Independent Party's, Dean Barkley.  Barkley is a former U.S. Senator, appointed to the Senate by Jesse Ventura after Paul Wellstone died. 

Trade in the Mississippi Senate Race: Wicker vs. Musgrove

In late August Rasmussen polling indicated that incumbent Republican Senator Roger Wicker was leading Democratic challenger and former Governor Ronnie Musgrove : Election 2008: Mississippi Senate Special.

There’s little change in the race between appointed U.S. Senator Roger Wicker (R) and former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D). The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Mississippi found Wicker attracts 47% of the vote, while Musgrove earns support from 42%. Last month, Wicker had a six-point edge.

When “leaners” are included, Wicker’s lead expands to nine percentage points, 52% to 43%. That’s the same as last month’s total.

Trade in the North Carolina Senate Race: Dole v Hagan

In North Carolina incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole is being hard pressed by Democratic State Senator Kay Hagan.  Rasmussen polling puts Hagan just in front of Dole in this tight race (Election 2008: North Carolina Senate):

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in North Carolina finds Democratic challenger Kay Hagan with 48% of the vote and the incumbent United States Senator Elizabeth Dole three points behind with 45%.

That’s a slight improvement for Dole who trailed by six just a few days ago, but it’s never comfortable for an incumbent to be trailing this late in the campaign season.

New Peterson Institute Weblog

The Peterson Institute for International Economics got an international trade and finance weblog up last Tuesday (September 23): Real Time Economic Issues Watch.  Hat tip to Menzie Chinn.

Trade in the Montana Senate Race: Baucus vs. Kelleher

Incumbent Democrat Max Baucus, Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, is running against 85 year old Republican Bob Kelleher. 

According to the Rasmussen polling firm, Kelleher doesn't pose a threat to Baucus: Election 2008: Montana Senate:

In the first poll of Montana’s race for United States Senate, Incumbent Max Baucus (D) is way out in front. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds the Senator leading challenger Robert Kelleher 64% to 31%

It doesn't look like trade is an important issue for Kelleher; it's not one of the issues that comes up on his campaign web site.

Baucus likes agricultural subsidies but doesn't like trade barriers.  Here's his average Cato score over the period 1997-2008 (in the Cato figure below the higher an "X" the greater the opposition to subsidies, the further an  "X" is to the right the greater the opposition to trade barriers):

 

Trade in the Maine Senate race: Collins vs. Allen

Two-term incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins is running against Democratic Congressman Tom Allen for this seat. This is not a close one.  Here's Pollster.com's summary of polling results back to 2007 (click to expand): 

The Cato Institute figure suggests that Collins is at best a mild opponent of trade barriers and a somewhat stronger opponent of subsidies (In the Cato figure each axis goes from 0% to 100%. The higher an "X" is along the vertical axis the greater the opposition to subsidies, the further an "X" is to the right the greater the opposition to trade barriers):