Two-term incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins is running against Democratic Congressman Tom Allen for this seat. This is not a close one. Here's Pollster.com's summary of polling results back to 2007 (click to expand):
The Cato Institute figure suggests that Collins is at best a mild opponent of trade barriers and a somewhat stronger opponent of subsidies (In the Cato figure each axis goes from 0% to 100%. The higher an "X" is along the vertical axis the greater the opposition to subsidies, the further an "X" is to the right the greater the opposition to trade barriers):
Collins' trade barriers record - as reported by Cato - shows some interesting fluctuations. Her trade barrier scores were low in the 105th and 106th Congresses (33% and 40% opposition). They jumped up when the Bush Adminstration took office, ranging between 50% and 70% opposition depending on the Congress. I wouldn't put too much weight on the Cato indices but they are suggestive; did Collins' trade stance have a strong partisan component? What happens if Obama takes office?
Allen has been in Congress since 1996. His Cato record is similar on trade, less attractive on subsidies. His barrier rankings are all over the place, from 25% in the 105th Congress to 89% in the 106th. These two records are not strictly comparable because they were generated in different legislative bodies and reflect different votes:
However, I get the impression he's tried to make trade an issue in this contest. He's brought in Ohio Democratic Senator and trade skeptic Sherrod Brown to campaign with him: Allen rallies supporters in Bangor with ‘Fair Trade Champion’. He promotes the "Trade Act" of which he is a sponsor: TOM ALLEN’S PLAN FOR A MODERN MAINE ECONOMY:
To improve trade agreements and the economy at home, we must pass the TRADE Act, cosponsored by Tom Allen. TheThe TRADE Act requires a review of existing trade agreements, and a renegotiation of existing trade agreements based on that review. It sets terms of what must and must not be included in future trade agreements, and expresses the sense of the Congress that the role of Congress in trade policymaking should be strengthened. The most troubling aspect of the current process is the practice of “fast-tracking,” which occurs when the Administration negotiates a trade agreement with another country, and then submits the agreement to Congress, which in turn does not have the right to amend or filibuster the agreement. Shutting out the elected representatives of the people is un-Democratic, and has led to some major problems in our trade agreements, including tax incentives for corporations to ship jobs overseas.
The AFO-CIO summarizes his trade stance (Congressman Tom Allen on the Employee Free Choice Act):
Allen summarizes his voting record on trade policy: "I voted against CAFTA, Fast Track, and the Peru Agreement because I knew they weren't right for Maine." Both the Peru Agreement and CAFTA eliminate barriers to trade and result in a loss of profit for domestic industries causing production to be shipped overseas. In addition, Fast Track gives the executive branch the authority to negotiate these unfair trade agreements regardless of the fact that the Constitution gave Congress the right to set the terms of U.S. trade policy.
In a debate on the 21st, both candidates expressed reservations on NAFTA: Allen, Collins remain civil in first debate:
Both candidates gave lukewarm reviews to the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Collins said trade agreements have created some jobs in Maine, such as an agreement with Chile for Maine potatoes at Burger King restaurants. But some trade agreements have resulted in tariffs that have hurt other Maine agricultural and forest sectors, she said.
Allen said he is co-sponsoring legislation that would review existing trade agreements that have done a lot of damage to the U.S. economy.
Jessica Alaimo also reports on the debate: Wall Street, foreign policy dominate first Allen-Collins debate.
The candidates also touched on trade. Allen said that the state has lost too many jobs as a result of badly developed trade agreements with no consideration of labor or environmental standards, and called for a review of all of them.
He said he is a sponsor of legislation that U.S. Rep. Mike Michaud (D-East Millinocket) developed that will set new standards for future trade agreements.
Collins called trade agreements a “double-edged sword”, and said they need to be analyzed on a case-by-case basis. A positive result of the Chilean trade agreement, she said, was that potatoes from the United States were exported to Chile for Burger King french fries.
She linked job loss and mill closures in Maine back to energy costs, which she said made it too costly for them to operate.
Edits: Oct 1 revised polling discussion and minor edits.
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