Trade in the 2008 Senate Races

 

Senate in Session.  Source: Wikipedia.

I've been posting on trade in Senate races for a couple of weeks now.  I hope I'll find the time to cover most of these races before November. 

This post, which I'll continue to update, pulls things together.  I've tried to rate each race on the way it will change support for trade liberalization between the current congress and the next one; the rating is based on what I've been able to discern about the candidates' positions, and polling information on the races.

Here's the deal (as of October 30, 2008):

• Incumbents with safe seats: There won't be a change in the trade stance where incumbents have safe seats.
• Alaska: Incumbent Republican Ted Stevens is running neck and neck with Democrat and Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, and in fact has been rising in the polls while Begich has been dropping somewhat.  On October 27, Stevens was convicted of seven counts of failing to submit required reports on gifts. Stevens has a pretty good trade record, and Begich has repeated a number of the current buzzwords for reduced openness to trade.  Rate this "too close to call."
• Colorado:  This is a close race between two congressmen, Mark Udall and Bob Schaffer.  The candidates appear to have similar trade records; Udall may be slightly better on opposing trade barriers, Schaffer a little better on opposing subsidies.  From voting records and the statements I've seen I haven't been able to determine which of these is better for trade.  However, the current incumbent has a very good record on trade barriers although not on subsidies.  With respect to trade barriers, expect a loss of ground from this seat in this election.
• Delaware: Joe Biden is running for reelection to the Senate from Delaware.  He is running way ahead of his Republican opposition, conservative commentator Christine O'Donnell.  O'Donnell doesn't appear to have made trade an issue.  Obama/Biden are probably going to win the Presidential election this year, so neither of these will be in the next Congress.  Impossible to determine the change in stance for this seat.
• Georgia: Republican Saxby Chambliss and challenger Democratic Jim Martin are in a very close race.  I haven't been able to find much by the challenger on trade issues.  Can't say anything about trade implications for next Congress yet.
  
• Idaho: Republican Jim Risch is running ahead of Democrat Larry LaRocco and Independent Rex Rammell for the seat held by retiring Republican Larry Craig. Craig's trade record was moderately good, although his record on trade subsidies was not.  Risch's web site doesn't provide information on his trade positions, so I can't say whether how this seat's support for trade will change in 2009.
• Kentucky: Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell is in a tight race against Democratic challenger, businessman Bruce Lunsford.  This is a very close race.  McConnell has a good record on opposition to trade barriers and doesn't have the worst record around on opposition to trade subsidies.  Lunsford has been attacking him on trade.  Because the race is so close, it's not possible to say right now how the trade stance of this seat will change.
• Maine: Incumbent Susan Collins is running well ahead of Democratic Congressman Tom Allen.  Allen has been running a populist campaign and making an issue of trade.  He's had Ohio Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown in to campaign for him.  Brown is a leading Senate trade-skeptic.  Rate this: no change in support for trade.
• Minnesota: Democrat Al Franken, the comedian, is about neck and neck with incumbent Republican Norm Coleman.  Coleman has a decent record on trade barriers although not on subsidies.  Franken is running a serious and thoughtful campaign; he thinks badly designed trade deals are responsible for job loss.  Coleman would probably be less likely to support trade barriers.  Because this race is so close, it's hard to say whether this seat will see a loss of support for trade next year, or not.
• Mississippi: Incumbent Republican Roger Wicker is running against former Democratic Governor Ronnie Musgrove.  Wicker has a modestly attractive record of opposition to trade barriers, and a poor record on subsidies.  Musgrove has been hammering on the trade issue.  Wicker is ahead.  Rate this: no change in support for trade.
• Montana: Democratic incumbent and Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus is running way ahead of Republican Bob Kelleher.  Rate this: no change in support for trade.
• Nebraska: This seat has been held by Republican Chuck Hagel who is retiring. Former governor and Bush Secretary of Agriculture Republican Mike Johanns is running ahead of Democrat Scott Kleeb to succeed him.  Hagel had an extraordinary record of opposition to trade barriers and trade subsidies but decided not to run for a third term.  I can't see either of the candidates duplicating the Hagel record - rate this one, loss of support for trade.
• New Hampshire: Incumbent Republican John Sununu has an excellent record opposing trade barriers and subsidies.  He's been running behind, and gradually closing the gap with, former Democratic N.H. Governor Jeanne Shaheen.  Trade doesn't appear to have been an issue in this campaign.  Its hard to see anyone duplicating Sununu's excellent record.  With Shaheen ahead, Rate this: potentially a loss for trade.
• North Carolina: Incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole is just behind Democratic State Senator Kay Hagan.  Dole's record on trade is not great.  Hagan has a thoughtful position paper on the topic.  Rate this: little change.
• Oregon:  Democratic Speaker of the Oregon House Jeff Merkley has a slight lead over incumbent Republican Senator Gordon Smith.  Smith has a good record on trade, Merkley has adopted a populist stance.  Rate this: "likely to reduce support for trade."
• Texas: Republican incumbent John Cornyn of Texas is almost 10 percentage points ahead of his Democratic challenger, state legislator Rick Noriega.  Cornyn has a good record on opposition to trade barriers but a relatively poor one on opposition to trade subsidies.  Given his lead at this point, don't expect a change in the trade stance of this seat.
• Virginia: Two former governors, Republican Mark Warner and Democrat Jim Gilmore are competing to replace retiring Republican Senator John Warner.  Warner is far ahead of Gilmore, and has said nice things about trade in the past.  I haven't found much that he's said about trade from this election.  However, given the "confidence intervals" around my assessments of each candidate, I can't reject the null hypothesis that Mark=John.

On the evidence of these ten races, it looks like there will be more less support in the next Senate for reducing trade barriers.  I don't think that's any surprise.

Some notes:

• These are not endorsements; trade isn't the only issue in these races.
• Obviously, this is being written from the perspective of someone opposed to tariff barriers and to non-tariff barriers designed to discriminate against foreign goods and services. 
• I've drawn heavily on Cato Institute rankings; these do not distinguish between support for multilateral agreements to reduce trade barriers and support for more discriminatory preferential trade agreements.  I can't recall finding any candidate who makes that distinction. I've also drawn on statements and ads prepared by the campaigns. 
• Senators do other things that affect trade outcomes - lobbying the USTR for example.  These activities are not reflected here.  Take a look at the North Carolina link for Senator Dole's descriptions of what these activites can involve.
• The outcomes of these races could affect the attitudes of other Senators towards trade legislation next year. 

I'll add additional races to this post.  I may also change it as I learn more about races already covered.

Revised October 8, 2008.  October 20, 2008 to add "Safe incumbents" and Georgia.  October 21 to add Virginia.  October 28 to add Kentucky and note Stevens' conviction.  October 29 added Texas.  October 30 added Nebraska.

Comments

[Shawn in Tokyo]

Do you have each candidate's positions on the Columbia FTA and Korea-US FTA? These have been on the burner for a while, but I haven't personally researched individual statements beyond the presidential candidates...