Bottom line:
Republican Saxby Chambliss and challenger Democratic Jim Martin are in a very close race. I haven't been able to find much by the challenger on trade issues. Can't say anything about trade implications for next Congress yet.
The baseline:
Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss was elected in 2002. Here's the Cato Institute summary of his record (In this figure each axis shows the percent of votes against either trade barriers or trade subsidies. The higher an "X" is along the vertical axis the greater the opposition to subsidies, the further an "X" is to the right the greater the opposition to trade barriers):
From 1994 to 2002, Chambliss was in the House. Here's his record from 1997-2002:
Here's a statement on trade from Chambliss:
Negotiations in the World Trade Organization are at a critical point and the focus is on reducing barriers to trade. The United States has much to gain. But if we are not careful, we will have even more to lose. The United States has proposed to reduce farm supports by 53 percent over five years. However, this requires meaningful market access from our trading partners. Without one, we cannot have the other. To do so would cause a dramatic economic shock to the U.S. rural economy not seen since the 1980s. I support the administration's proposal, but while the negotiations should discuss how much to reduce support for agriculture worldwide, they cannot dictate how those cuts should be made. Under our Constitution, Congress enacts laws while the executive branch implements them. The United States has an average tariff of 12 percent, compared to 31 percent in the European Union and 62 percent worldwide. Farmers in the European Union get four times more government subsidies than U.S. farmers. We are willing to reform, if the European Union and Japan do the same. It is neither fair nor equitable for the United States to reduce the safety net for farmers and ranchers just to see Brazil and Argentina, with their well-developed and competitive agricultural economies, simply increase production. That will not help the American farmer or developing countries. And it is not what I was elected to do.
Will there be a change?
Could be. Chambliss and Democratic challengerJim Martin are neck and neck. This race is essentially tied, although Martin seems to have lost some momentum recently. Martin is a former Georgia legislator and head of the Georgia Department of Human Resouces. Here are the polling results from Pollster.com.
Ben Evans and Shannon McCaffrey report on the race for the Washington Post: GOP Ga. senator in 'fight of his life'.
How will the trade stance of this seat change?
Martin may win this. I haven't been able to find much he's said about trade. From his ads: "Nothing's changing in Washington... We have to reverse George Bush's failed economic policies... We have to take care of our own country again..." But it's hard to infer trade policies from this. This ad does criticize tax breaks for companies shipping jobs overseas:
Without more on Martin's ideas about trade, and given the very close race, I can't say anything about how this seat's trade stance will change in the next Congress.
Revised, November 1, 2008
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