Trade in the Kentucky Senate race: McConnell v Lunsford

How will this election change the trade stance of the seat currently held by Republican Mitch McConnell of Kentucky?

McConnell is in a tight race against Democratic challenger, businessman Bruce Lunsford.  This is a very close race.  McConnell has a good record on opposition to trade barriers and doesn't have the worst record around on opposition to trade subsidies.  Lunsford has been attacking him on trade.  Because the race is so close, it's not possible to say right now how the trade stance of this seat will change.

Baseline

McConnell is the incumbent, so his record is the baseline.  McConnell has a good record on trade barriers, not so much on subsidies.  Here's the Cato Institute summary (In this figure each axis shows the percent of votes  against either trade barriers or trade subsidies. The higher an "X" is along the vertical axis the greater the opposition to subsidies, the further an "X" is to the right the greater the opposition to trade barriers. The votes are from the period 1997 to 2008.):

How are things trending

Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell is leading Bruce Lunsford slightly in Kentucky but the race is tightening.  Here's the Pollster.com summary of polling results for October 28, 2008:

Carl Hulse profiled the race for the New York Times: A Senate Leader's Pork-Barrel Punch.

Lunsford's web site has some items relating to trade:

Investing in a New American Economy

If America is going to compete in the global economic marketplace, we must be a leader in innovation. To do so, I believe we must make substantial investments in new research and development, focusing on the development of alternative energy technologies that will provide high-paying jobs and reduce our dependence on foreign oil.

Developing a Workforce for 21st Century Jobs

To meet the challenge of the new global economy and it’s swiftly changing technologies, we must ensure that our young people are well educated. We need to invest in early science and math education, as well as tuition tax credits to help more students get a college education.

Standing up for American Companies and Workers

In addition, we must ensure that all trade agreements include significant worker protections. It shouldn’t be too much to ask to have trade agreements that open up new markets for American products and protect quality American jobs.

Country of Origin Labeling

“Country of Origin” labeling laws must be implemented immediately to enable American farmers to distinguish their products from foreign producers. American farmers deserve this consideration in the marketplace so consumers can differentiate between domestic and foreign products.

McConnell Downplayed Impact Outsourcing of Jobs has on Economy…

Both McConnell and his wife, Secretary of Labor Elaine Chao, have stated repeatedly that outsourcing does not have a significant impact on U.S. jobs. The Senator even argued the issue on the Senate floor.

In fact, as many as a half a million men and women in the U.S. have lost jobs to outsourcing and up to 6 million more will be unemployed within 10 year for the same reason. The McConnells’ denial of the affects of outsourcing may be connected to the Senator’s support for his corporate cronies. Just 3 years ago, McConnell aligned with U.S. corporate executives and voted to keep tax incentives for those companies that outsource their manufacturing plants. If the tax break had been repealed, not only would it have made it less financially lucrative for companies to outsource but the revenues from the tax would have been used to reduce the federal deficit. [Vote 63, 3/17/05; Courier-Journal, 10/20/06; Los Angeles Times, 5/2/04]

This story from the Louisville Courier-Journal, reports on a Lunsford accusation "that legislation McConnell supported that cut business taxes benefited companies that moved jobs to China.": Lunsford responds to ad by McConnell.

Bottom line:

McConnell has a good record on trade and Lunsford is attacking him on trade issues.  I suspect that Lunsford wouldn't be as favorable to liberal trading rules as McConnell has been.  However, since the race is so close, it's impossible to say how the seat's stance will change.

Minor edit Oct 29, 2008

Comments

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Snoreta

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