How will this election change the trade stance of the seat currently held by Republican Chuck Hagel of Nebraska?
Hagel is leaving the Senate. Former governor and Bush Secretary of Agriculture Republican Mike Johanns is running ahead of Democrat Scott Kleeb to succeed him. Hagel had an extraordinary record of opposition to trade barriers and trade subsidies but decided not to run for a third term. I can't see either of the candidates duplicating the Hagel record - rate this one, loss of support for trade.
Baseline
Hagel has held the seat, so his record is the baseline. His record is unusually good on both trade barriers and trade subsidies. Here's the Cato Institute summary of his Senate record (In this figure each axis shows the percent of votes against either trade barriers or trade subsidies. The higher an "X" is along the vertical axis the greater the opposition to subsidies, the further an "X" is to the right the greater the opposition to trade barriers. The votes are from the period 1997 to 2008.)
In June Hagel spoke about trade in a Brookings Institution speech: U.S. Foreign Policy and the 2008 Presidential Campaign.
Trade is a driving force for sustained economic prosperity and job creation both in the United States and throughout the world. Trade, however, is not a guarantee. The ongoing credit crisis and skyrocketing world food and energy prices are among the recent temptations for countries to restrict markets and veer toward protectionism that leads to dangerous insular thinking. These temptations must be resisted and the hard-earned lessons of history not forgotten. The United States must continue to press for a successful conclusion to the Doha Round of global trade negotiations. America’s leaders should stand behind our trade agreements and support the pending Free Trade Agreements with Colombia, South Korea and Panama as well as renewing Trade Promotion Authority for the next President.
Hat tip: International Trade Law News.
How are things trending
Johanns has been ahead throughout the campaign. Although his lead has been shrinking, it still looks like he'll win on Tuesday Here's the Pollster.com appraisal of polling results for October 29, 2008:
Johanns has placed his trade positions under "Agriculture" in his issues statement:
7. I will support trade promotion authority and I will also support a trade policy that
lowers barriers to U.S. products thereby leveling the playing field for our producers.
8. Trade agreements must include a provision for countries to open their borders to
U.S. beef based on accepted international standards.
9. In any trade agreement, I will work aggressively with our labor unions to protect U.S.
jobs and to fund programs to help U.S. workers impacted by Trade Agreements.
10. I will demand that environmental requirements be included in trade agreements.
11. I will work to build a new initiative to fund agricultural research and extension
programs because this critical funding has kept the U.S. farmer and rancher at the
cutting edge of world production agriculture.
Scott Kleeb's campaign web site raises several trade issues:
- ...a thriving global economy is both a road to economic prosperity and to spreading the promise of democracy. Scott believes we must take a strong and focused approach in negotiating agreements that provide new opportunities for American workers and promote American values, while forging deeper ties with our trading partners.
- Promote fair trade, not free trade. Expanding trade with other countries should not mean sacrificing American jobs, nor should it be a one-way street. Scott Kleeb supports trade agreements that require other countries to follow clear, transparent rules, and to provide real opportunities for U.S. farmers and companies to access foreign markets.
- Effective enforcement of existing agreements. The United States cannot benefit from free trade if other countries don’t abide by the rules. Scott Kleeb believes that we must dedicate more resources to enforcing our existing trade agreements when other countries block U.S. goods and services, including bringing more cases to the World Trade Organization.
- Strong labor and environmental protections. Our free trade agreements should truly level the playing field between U.S. and foreign firms, by ensuring that our trading partners have strong labor and environmental standards.
- Expand trade adjustment assistance. Scott Kleeb recognizes that some industries and communities can be harmed by increased imports. That’s why he supports expanding trade adjustment assistance to retrain displaced workers, including those in the services sector. Comprehensive education and training are essential to putting Americans back to work, and maintaining U.S. competitiveness.
- Stop tax breaks for companies sending American jobs overseas. Too frequently, we’ve seen companies get rich off the backs of American workers only to ship their jobs overseas. Scott Kleeb believes this is not only bad for American families, but also bad for business. Scott will work to stop extending tax breaks to companies that take good-paying jobs overseas, and instead invest in those companies that invest in American workers.
- Get his agricultural page as well
Bottom line: It would be hard to duplicate Hagel's record. The odds are, neither candidate would. Expect some loss of support for trade. Hagel, by the way, has been mentioned for a position in an Obama cabinet, and his name came up in the Democratic VP discussion (The Hill's Blog Briefing Room).
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