How will this election change the trade stance of the seat currently held by Republican Pete Dominici of New Mexico?
Dominici is leaving the Senate. Democratic representative Tom Udall is ahead of Republican Representative Steve Pearce to replace him.
Baseline
Dominici has held the seat, so his record is the baseline. His record is unusually good on both trade barriers and trade subsidies. Here's the Cato Institute summary of his Senate record (In this figure each axis shows the percent of votes against either trade barriers or trade subsidies. The higher an "X" is along the vertical axis the greater the opposition to subsidies, the further an "X" is to the right the greater the opposition to trade barriers. Although Dominici has been in the Senate since 1973, the votes only cover the period 1997 to 2008.)
How are things trending
Udall is almost certainly going to win this race. Here's the Pollster.com report on polling:
Udall has been in the House since 1999. Here's the Cato Institute description of his record on trade barriers and trade subsidies:
There isn't much on trade at Udall's web site. He promises to support the Patriot Employer Act (Udall web site):
Tax Incentives for Companies that Create Jobs in America
In the Senate, I will support the Patriot Employer Act to provide a tax
credit to companies that maintain or increase the number of workers in
America and I will end the tax breaks for companies that outsource
American jobs. These tax credits for job-creating businesses are
particularly helpful for new alternative energy industries (such as
wind, solar and geothermal).
However, a review of his web site, press releases and ads, suggests that trade issues haven't been important in his campaign.
Bottom line:
Udall is likely to replace Dominici, and a comparison of their voting records (albeit with respect to different votes in different houses, but over the same period) suggests that Udall will be less supportive of liberal trading arrangements than Dominici.
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