Trade in the Texas Senate Race: Cornyn v Noriega

How will this election change the trade stance of the seat currently held by Republican John Cornyn of Texas?

Cornyn is almost 10 points ahead of his Democratic challenger, state legislator Rick Noriega.  Cornyn has a good record on opposition to trade barriers but a relatively poor one on opposition to trade subsidies.  Given his lead at this point, don't expect a change in the trade stance of this seat.

Baseline

Cornyn is the incumbent, so his record is the baseline.  He has a good record on trade barriers, not so much on subsidies.  Here's the Cato Institute summary of his Senate record (In this figure each axis shows the percent of votes  against either trade barriers or trade subsidies. The higher an "X" is along the vertical axis the greater the opposition to subsidies, the further an "X" is to the right the greater the opposition to trade barriers. The votes are from the period 2005 to 2008.)  Cornyn was elected in 2002, but the Cato record only goes back to 2005 for some reason.)

How are things trending

Cornyn is leading Noriega by almost 10% (on October 29).  The race doesn't seem to be tightening appreciably.  Here's the Pollster.com appraisal of polling results for October 29, 2008:

A quick review of the candidates' campaign web sites suggests trade has not been an issue in this campaign.

Bottom line:

Cornyn has a a good record on trade barriers but not on trade subsidies.  He is likely to win.  Don't expect a change in the trade stance for this seat.

Comments

[Jenny]

If the DNC had given Noriega as much money as they have given other Democratc Senate candidates, he would win. Noriega has done amazingly well on his own.

[Converse jack purcell]

controlled political event. Aside from the moment, it is also a very dramatic photo visually speaking because of where she is standing beneath the light. Great shot.