Less support for trade in the Senate next year

 

Senate in Session.  Source: Wikipedia.

There will be less support for trade in the Senate in January than there is today.  Of the nine seats that clearly changed hands, eight were taken over by persons likely to place more conditions on trade barrier reductions than their predecessors. One race - Minnesota - is still undecided (as of Dec 2).  This is not likely to move into the hands of persons more sympathetic to trade than their current incumbents.

And the turnover isn't over yet.  Both President-elect Obama and Vice President elect Biden are sitting U.S. senators.  They will be resigning their seats.  In both states, replacements will be appointed by Democratic governors. 

Rep Jessie Jackson Jr. has expressed interest in Obama's seat, and there are others in contention, including Rep. Janice Schankowsky (Jesse Jackson Jr. hopes to replace Obama in Senate).  Neither Jackson (33% opposition to trade barriers, 37% opposition to trade subsidies) nor Schankowsky (39% opposition to barriers and 32% to subsidies) has shown strong support for reducing trade barriers or eliminating trade subsidies.  But at this point, neither has Obama.  I'd guess if either of these is appointed, there would be little change in the trade stance for this seat. 

Biden is reported to want his son, Beau Biden, Delaware's Attorney General, appointed to fill his seat, but others may be in contention as well (see the story cited above).

If Obama turns to the Senate for cabinet members, additional seats will open up.  For example, Richard Lugar (R-Indiana), who has an extraordinary trade record (96% opposition to trade barriers, 86% opposition to trade subsidies), is under consideration for Secretary of State.  Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) is under consideration for Commerce Secretary (Who would be in an Obama cabinet?).

The following assessments of individual races are based on Cato Institute ratings, issue statements on candidate web sites, and web searches. 

The Cato Institute rates candidates by looking at the percentage of the time they voted against trade barriers, and the percentage of the time they voted against trade subsidies.  I've just reported summary percentages below without noting the number of years and votes covered by each.  Reports from the House and Senate are based on different sets of votes, which affects their comparability.  I've focused more on trade barriers than subsidies in making the assessments.  Obviously, this these are rough comparisons with large "confidence intervals."

1. Alaska: As of Tuesday, November 18, Anchorage's Democratic Mayor Mark Begich has a 3,700 vote lead and there are only 2,500 ballots left to count.  Begich has beaten incumbent Republican Ted Stevens (Stevens Loses in Senate Race: Tally Indicates).  Stevens had a good trade record, opposing trade barriers 74% of the time, and opposing trade subsidies 29% of the time.  Begich didn't make a big issue of trade.  However, his stated positions (available at the Alaska link) reflect the desire of many Democrats to impose more conditions on trade barrier reductions.  On October 27, Stevens was convicted of seven counts of failing to submit required reports on gifts.  Rate this: loss for trade.
2. Colorado:  Retiring Republican Senator Wayne Allard had a very good record on trade with 88% opposition to trade barriers and 54% opposition to trade subsidies.  Democratic Senator-elect Mark Udall accumulated a less attractive record in the House (54% opposition to trade barriers and 23% opposition to trade subsidies).  Rate this: loss for trade.
3. Georgia: Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss failed to get over 50% of the vote in his contest with challenger Democrat Jim Martin, and has been forced into a runoff scheduled for December 2.  Chambliss has voted against trade barriers 65% of the time, and never against trade subsidies.  I haven't found much by the challenger about trade.  Given the uncertainty about the outcome, and Martin's positions, I have to rate this: unknown.   Update: Chambliss was re-elected in the December 2 runoff.
   
4. Idaho: Retiring Republican Larry Craig had a good record on trade, opposing trade barriers 72% of the time, and trade subsidies 36% of the time.  He's going to be replaced by Republican Jim Risch.  Risch doesn't have a congressional record, and his web site doesn't provide information on his trade positions, so I can't say how this seat's support for trade will change in 2009.  Rate this: unknown.
   
5. Minnesota: This one, between Democrat Al Franken, the comedian, and Republican incumbent Norm Coleman, is very close, and a recount will take place.  Mary Pat Flaherty reports in the Washington Post that this probably won't be settled until mid-December: Minn. Senate race far from over.  Coleman had a good record on trade barriers (73% opposition to trade barriers) although not on subsidies (0% opposition to trade subsidies).  I expect Franken will run up lower scores on opposition to trade barriers, but could hardly do worse on opposition to trade subsidies.  Rate this: too close to call.
6. Nebraska: This seat has been held by retiring Republican Chuck Hagel. Former governor and Bush Secretary of Agriculture Republican Mike Johanns has beaten Democrat Scott Kleeb to take the seat.  Hagel had an extraordinary record of opposition to trade barriers and trade subsidies (92% opposition to trade barriers and 69% opposition to trade subsidies) but decided not to run for a third term.  Even if Johanns turns out to be good on trade, it is hard to see the Hagel record being duplicated - rate this one: loss for trade.
7. New Hampshire: Incumbent Republican John Sununu had an extraordinary record of opposition to trade barriers and subsidies (90% opposition to barriers, 100% opposition to subsidies).  But he's been beaten by former Democratic N.H. Governor Jeanne Shaheen.  Trade doesn't appear to have been an issue in this campaign.  Its hard to see anyone duplicating Sununu's record.  Rate this: loss for trade.
8. New Mexico: Incumbent Republican Pete Domenici decided not to seek reelection this year on health grounds, although his decision may also have been affected by reports connecting him to a scandal over the firing of a U.S. Attorney. Domenici had a very good trade record, opposing 81% of the trade barriers on which he voted, and 33% of the trade subsidies. Democratic Representative Tom Udall has won the election.  Udall's record in the House has not been as attractive.  He's only voted against trade barriers 44% of the time, and against trade subsidies 23% of the time.  Rate this: loss for trade.
   
9. North Carolina: Democratic State Senator Kay Hagan defeated incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole.  Hagan is a thoughtful candidate and has one of the more interesting set of position papers I've seen this year, including a paper on trade.  Dole has opposed trade barriers 63% of the time, but has not opposed trade subsidies.  Hagan has criticized Dole for her pro-trade stance: Kay Hagan vs. Elizabeth Dole. Trade, Jobs and Outsourcing.  Rate this: loss for trade.
10. Oregon:  Democratic Speaker of the Oregon House Jeff Merkley has beaten incumbent Republican Senator Gordon Smith.  Smith had a good record on trade (76% opposition to barriers and 23% opposition to subsidies).  Merkley campaigned as a populist and made trade an issue.  Rate this: loss for trade.
11. Virginia: Former Democratic Governor Mark Warner is replacing retiring Republican Senator John Warner.  John Warner had a very good trade record (84% opposition to barriers and 29% opposition to subsidies).  I haven't found many comments about trade by Mark Warner from this election, but he has said nice things in the past.  Given the incumbent's unusually strong support for trade, and the limited information on the Senator-elect's recent trade stance, I can't say "no change."  Rate this: loss for trade (although hopefully not much, and maybe none).

Bottom line: less support for trade in the next Senate.

Some notes:

• Some strong supporters of free trade left the Senate this year.  Allard, Sununu, Hagel, Domenici, and Warner had all voted against trade barriers over 80% of the time.
• I've drawn heavily on Cato Institute rankings; these do not distinguish between support for multilateral agreements to reduce trade barriers and support for more discriminatory preferential trade agreements.  I can't recall finding any candidate who makes that distinction. I've also drawn on statements and ads prepared by the campaigns.
• Senators do other things that affect trade outcomes - lobbying the USTR for example.  These activities are not reflected here.  Take a look at the North Carolina link for Senator Dole's descriptions of what these activities can involve.
• The impacts of these races will extend beyond the stance of a particular seat that may have changed hands. Senators keep an eye on what works with the voters and what doesn't.  To the extent that trade is seen as affecting voting outcomes, these results will affect the attitudes of other Senators towards trade legislation next year.  These outcomes also will strengthen Democratic control over the Senate.  Democrats have tended to be more skeptical of trade reform recently so this may also reduce the prospects for trade liberalization.  To the extent that this Democratic stance was a partisan reaction to the initiatives of a Republican president, the Democratic stance may be moderated by Obama's election. 
• I've looked at the implications of the election for support for trade in the Senate in 2009.  This is not the same thing as an examination of the impact of trade on the 2008 elections.  To do that, I'd have to looking at a wider range of elections, and not just elections in which the seat changed hands. Trade skeptics didn't win everywhere:
  
  •  For example, in Maine, incumbent Susan Collins ran well ahead of Democratic Congressman Tom Allen.  Allen ran a populist campaign and made an issue of trade.  He had Ohio Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown in to campaign for him.  Brown is a leading Senate trade-skeptic.  Nevertheless, exit polling (Maine Collins exit polling) suggests that Collins won on the economic issue (she got the support of 59% of voters who thought the economy was the biggest issue, of 60% of self-described moderates, and of a majority from every income group except those earning under $15,000).
  • Incumbent Republican Roger Wicker has eaked out a win against former Democratic Governor Ronnie Musgrove.  Wicker was appointed to the Senate in 2007 and has no Senate record.  As a Congressman he opposed trade barriers 63% of the time, and trade subsidies only 10% of the time.  Musgrove made an issue of trade. Exit polling (Mississippi special election) suggests Wicker won majorities among those who thought the economy was the most important issue and among those who were worried about economic conditions, but only among income groups over $30,000).

I'll bring this post up to date when the last races are resolved.

Edits: Added note on Richard Lugar, Nov 5; Georgia runoff necessary, Nov 5.  Merkley win and related edits, Nov 6.  Nov 8: updates on Alaska and Minnesota races.  Nov 14: update on Alaska vote; Nov 18, Alaska conclusion.  Dec 2: updated for Georgia runoff.