The National Foreign Trade Council has released its assessment of the trade impact of the 2008 Congressional races: NFTC Releases Analysis of 2008 Congressional Election Results and Their Impact on U.S. Trade Policy:
The NFTC analysis found that of the eight Senate races analyzed, only four successful candidates mentioned trade explicitly on his or her Web site when discussing campaign issues. Based on these Web sites and other statements, the NFTC estimates that perhaps two of the successful candidates are less inclined towards free trade and engagement than the incumbent based upon his or her historical voting record. Similarly, in the 52 House races analyzed, only 12 successful candidates made any mention of international trade in the issues section of his or her Web site. Further, of the 12 House races in which trade was featured, only seven successful candidates appear to advocate policies that are clearly less inclined towards free trade and engagement than their predecessors. According to the NFTC, only 23 percent of successful candidates running for a House seat mentioned trade on their Web site, which is a dramatic decline from 2006 when 54 percent of successful candidates mentioned trade.
My assessment of the Senate races is considerably more pessimistic than this: Less support for trade in the Senate next year. I haven't looked at the House races so can't make a comparison, however all the victory dancing at the trade skeptical Eyes on Trade suggests they have a different assessment of the House outcomes: With Perriello, we're up to 40 new fair traders!!
Edit - characterize Eyes on Trade for those unfamiliar with its trade stance.
Hey Ben - I've been following your informative coverage of the Senate races. That NFTC study was fairly embarrassingly sloppy, whatever one may think of the merits of their or my point of view. I've done some analysis of their report here: http://citizen.typepad.com/eyesontrade/2008/11/corporate-lobby.html
Posted by: Todd Tucker | November 18, 2008 at 03:42 PM