The Custom-House

Solis selected for Labor Secretary

Obama is expected to select U.S. Representative Hilda Solis (D-CA) to be his Labor Secretary: Picks for Labor and Trade Positions Disagree on Policy

The Cato Institute reports that, since Solis entered the House in 2001, she has voted against trade barriers 39% of the time on the 41 votes they include in their analysis. 

What kinds of trade did she like?  She was death on barriers to trade with Cuba.  Out of the 16 votes she cast against trade barriers, seven were against barriers to trade with Cuba.  Set aside votes on Cuba and she only voted against barriers on nine out of 34 votes, or 26% of the time.

She only opposed trade subsidies in 18% of the 17 votes included in the Cato analysis.

It looks like Ron Kirk for USTR

Doug Palmer reports his sources are telling him that tomorrow Obama will pick former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk as U.S. Trade Representative:Obama to pick Ron Kirk as U.S. trade chief: source:

Although Kirk doesn't bring obvious trade credentials to the job, that may not matter much, a former top Commerce Department official said.

"What's important about the job is the ability to negotiate and make a deal and politicians tend to be pretty good at that," said Bill Reinsch, president of the National Foreign Trade Council.

Simon Lester, at the International Economic Law and Policy Blog, reports he's seen pro-NAFTA comments Kirk made as mayor of Dallas, but suggests Kirk's opinions may have changed since then: Ron Kirk Is (Probably) U.S. Trade Rep. 

Apparently in his 2002 Senate race he said that he wouldn't have voted for the trade promotion authority legislation earlier that year: Ron Kirk for U.S. Trade Representative?

Helene Cooper and Steven Greenhouse report (Picks for Labor and Trade Positions Disagree on Policy, New York Times) that in 2000, when he was still mayor of Dallas, Kirk...

...called for permanently normalizing trade relations with China, saying that “you’re either a part of the global economic community or you’re going to be left out of it.”

They also suggest that business tends to favor the nomination, while labor is unsure what to think:

“We are very pleased at Kirk’s selection, and we look forward to working with him,” said Julia K. Hughes, senior vice president for the United States Association of Importers of Textiles and Apparel. “He has been an outspoken free trade advocate, and as mayor of Dallas, recognizes the positive economic impact from trade agreements.”

Labor activists who would speak only on condition of anonymity expressed wariness about Mr. Kirk...

Sam Youngman notes labor's concerns (Labor worried about Mayor Kirk Nomination - The Hill):

Kirk is a worry for labor because he does not have a record of criticizing trade deals, according to Thea Lee, a lobbyist for the AFL-CIO. 

"We want someone who will take trade in a different direction," said Lee. "He doesn't have much of a record. That's a concern."

Youngman also contrasts business and labor attitudes toward Kirk.  As a Texan, maybe Kirk sees the importance of trade?

In contrast, business appears optimistic about Kirk. Bill Lane, a lobbyist for Caterpillar, said Kirk gets the value of trade because he is a border-state mayor.

"As a Texas mayor, he clearly understands the importance of trade," Lane said.

Revised during the 18th.

More Obama Trade Policy Theorizing

Andrew Schneider reports on Obama's trade priorities for the Kiplinger Letter:Obama’s First Trade Priority Is Helping Displaced U.S. Workers.  This is informed speculation, but it sounds plausible:

Barack Obama and the 111th Congress will move quickly to expand Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA), which provides help for workers displaced by trade agreements....

But Obama won't reopen the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) or other ratified free trade pacts, as he suggested he might while campaigning for the Democratic nomination.... At most, the new president will review existing agreements and try to negotiate for side agreements.

Odds are that both [The Columbian and Korean FTAS - Ben] agreements will pass eventually, for both political and economic reasons.... All the same, it's unlikely that Congress will take up either bill until late 2009 or early 2010....  By contrast, the FTA with Panama will pass Congress next year with little problem.

A fresh grant of trade promotion authority (TPA) will be a very low priority... Moreover, Obama doesn't plan to introduce any new free trade agreements in his first term. In the unlikely event of a breakthrough in the Doha Round of World Trade Organization talks, he'd be able to muster enough congressional votes to win passage even without TPA.

"A Harmonized (Tariff) Christmas"

From Tyler Brown, over at International Trade Law News: A Harmonized (Tariff) Christmas.  Jonathan Dingels exams must be done, because he's found the time to calculate the MFN rate: Christmas tariffs.

Revised Dec 19, 2008

It won't be Becerra

Representative Xavier Becerra (D-CA) has decided he doesn't want to be U.S. Trade Representative: So much for that.  Becerra explained that "he was concerned that trade would not be a top priority for the Obama administration."

Ron Kirk for U.S. Trade Representative?

Ron Kirk Source: Trail Blazers Blog

News reports say that former Democratic Dallas Mayor (1995-2001) Ron Kirk may be under consideration for U.S. Trade Representative: Ex Dallas mayor mum on possible U.S. trade post.

Kirk was the first black mayor of Dallas from 1995 until 2001, when he launched an unsuccessful bid for the United States Senate.

He was an aide to late Sen. Lloyd Bentsen during the 1980s and followed Bentsen to the Treasury Department, when former President Bill Clinton tapped the Texas Democrat as his first Treasury secretary.

More recently Kirk has been a partner at Houston's Vinson and Elkins law firm.  Here's his biography at Vinson and Elkins.  He doesn't appear to have much international or trade experience.

Kirk ran for the U.S. Senate in 2002.  John Nichols reports for The Nation that Kirk said he would have voted against Trade Promotion Authority earlier that year: A Congressman's Defeat Spells Trouble for Business Democrats:

...As Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee executive director Howard Wolfson delicately explained, "(In) some districts in this country a free trade position is not helpful."

Sawyer was not the first Democrat in recent years to discover those consequences. After voting for a previous version of Fast Track, California Rep. Matthew Martinez was defeated in a 2000 primary by labor-backed challenger Hilda Solis. And Rep. Ken Bentsen, a Houston Democrat who voted for the current Fast Track proposal when it came before the House last December, lost a March Democratic primary for an open U.S. Senate seat after his opponent, former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, said he would have opposed Fast Track.

In this CNN Situation Room transcript from March 3, 2008, Kirk KIRK refers to the need to change the atmosphere in Washington to bring about a "more responsible trade policy." ("I love you, Congresswoman. You're a great friend. But the reality is people care more about believing and knowing that we're never going to get a health care bill. We're never going to have a more responsible trade policy if we don't change the climate in Washington.").  So he's no fan of the Bush Administration's approach to trade policy.

Edits 12-25-08; 12-16-08.

The old team leaves as the new one comes in...

 

The Undersecretary for International Trade in the Department of Commerce, Christopher Padilla, is moving on to become a managing director at the Crowell & Moring law firm: Senior Commerce Trade Official Christopher A. Padilla Joins C&M International.

At Commerce:

Do I need an "Election 2012" category already?

Today's Anchorage Daily News carries this short story by Mark Dent: Palin dives into foreign affairs on Canadian TV show.

Palin expressed her faith that the new Obama Administration would work to improve the relationship between the U.S. and Canada.  But...

Cap-and-trade and trade links

Obama has endorsed a cap-and-trade system for controlling greenhouse gas emissions (Obama commits to a strong cap-and-trade system).  

In a cap-and-trade system, the government sets an cap on overall greenhouse gas emissions and allocates the available rights to emit the gases to firms in various industries.  The firms can trade these rights among themselves.  That makes it possible for the rights to be used by the parties that place the greatest value on them, and to minimize the aggregate cost of reaching the emissions target. As time passes, the government can squeeze down the volume of greenhouse gases emitted by reducing the overall cap.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has a useful report on the theory and mechanics of cap-and-trade systems in general: Tools of the Trade.  A Guide to Designing and Operating a Cap and Trade Program for Pollution Control. 

Robert Stavins, an environmental economist from Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, discusses the issues involved in a U.S. greenhouse gas cap-and-trade program in this working paper: Addressing Climate Change with a Comprehensive U.S. Cap-and-Trade System.  The Resources for the Future (RFF) web page on Assessing U.S. climate Change Options is a good resource.   

How does Becerra think U.S. trade policy should change?

Potential Obama US Trade Representative designate Xavier Becerra is a member of the House Ways and Means Committee.  In July 2005, he signed a dissenting views section of the committee's report on the  Dominican Republic - Central American Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA) trade agreement. 

Simon Lester, at the International Economic Law and Policy Blog, suggests that the dissent may provide some good insights into Becerra's thinking about trade: Becerra's Trade Views. 

Here are some extracts and key issues from Lester's post: