The Custom-House

McCain and Obama on Northeast Asia

Shawn Beilfuss looks at Obama's and McCain's opinions on U.S. political and economic relations with the Northeast Asian countries: U.S. Presidential Candidates on Foreign Affairs/trade with Northeast Asia. Each country in the region - Japan, China, North and South Korea, Russia, and Taiwan - gets separate treatment. 

Trade in the Colorado Senate Race: Udall vs Schaffer

Two congressmen are competing for an open Senate seat in Colorado.  Democrat Mark Udall is just ahead of Republican Bob Schaffer (Rasmussen reports):

The U.S. Senate race in Colorado has gotten even closer over the past month. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state now finds Democrat Mark Udall with a modest 46% to 44% edge over Republican Bob Schaffer.

In August, Udall led the race by a 48% to 41% margin. The gap has steadily decreased since Udall’s biggest lead in mid-June. The two men are competing to replace retiring Republican Senator Wayne Allard....

Udall has been a congressman since 1998.  His record from the Cato Institute (In the Cato figure each axis goes from 0% to 100%. The higher an "X" is along the vertical axis the greater the opposition to subsidies, the further an "X" is to the right the greater the opposition to trade barriers):

Trade in the Minnesota Senate Race: Coleman, Franken, and Barkley

First term incumbent Republican Senator Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken (the comedian) are neck and neck in Minnesota:

Republican incumbent Norm Coleman has inched ahead of Al Franken in Minnesota’s hotly contested U.S. Senate race, with the introduction of a third-party candidate having virtually no impact on the contest so far.

Coleman, who is seeking a second term in the Senate, is ahead of Franken, a TV comedy writer and longtime Democratic activist, by a statistically insignificant one percentage point, 48% to 47%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

The third party candidate, polling 3%, is the Independent Party's, Dean Barkley.  Barkley is a former U.S. Senator, appointed to the Senate by Jesse Ventura after Paul Wellstone died. 

Trade in the Mississippi Senate Race: Wicker vs. Musgrove

In late August Rasmussen polling indicated that incumbent Republican Senator Roger Wicker was leading Democratic challenger and former Governor Ronnie Musgrove : Election 2008: Mississippi Senate Special.

There’s little change in the race between appointed U.S. Senator Roger Wicker (R) and former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D). The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Mississippi found Wicker attracts 47% of the vote, while Musgrove earns support from 42%. Last month, Wicker had a six-point edge.

When “leaners” are included, Wicker’s lead expands to nine percentage points, 52% to 43%. That’s the same as last month’s total.

Trade in the North Carolina Senate Race: Dole v Hagan

In North Carolina incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole is being hard pressed by Democratic State Senator Kay Hagan.  Rasmussen polling puts Hagan just in front of Dole in this tight race (Election 2008: North Carolina Senate):

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in North Carolina finds Democratic challenger Kay Hagan with 48% of the vote and the incumbent United States Senator Elizabeth Dole three points behind with 45%.

That’s a slight improvement for Dole who trailed by six just a few days ago, but it’s never comfortable for an incumbent to be trailing this late in the campaign season.

Trade in the Montana Senate Race: Baucus vs. Kelleher

Incumbent Democrat Max Baucus, Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, is running against 85 year old Republican Bob Kelleher. 

According to the Rasmussen polling firm, Kelleher doesn't pose a threat to Baucus: Election 2008: Montana Senate:

In the first poll of Montana’s race for United States Senate, Incumbent Max Baucus (D) is way out in front. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds the Senator leading challenger Robert Kelleher 64% to 31%

It doesn't look like trade is an important issue for Kelleher; it's not one of the issues that comes up on his campaign web site.

Baucus likes agricultural subsidies but doesn't like trade barriers.  Here's his average Cato score over the period 1997-2008 (in the Cato figure below the higher an "X" the greater the opposition to subsidies, the further an  "X" is to the right the greater the opposition to trade barriers):

 

Trade in the Maine Senate race: Collins vs. Allen

Two-term incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins is running against Democratic Congressman Tom Allen for this seat. This is not a close one.  Here's Pollster.com's summary of polling results back to 2007 (click to expand): 

The Cato Institute figure suggests that Collins is at best a mild opponent of trade barriers and a somewhat stronger opponent of subsidies (In the Cato figure each axis goes from 0% to 100%. The higher an "X" is along the vertical axis the greater the opposition to subsidies, the further an "X" is to the right the greater the opposition to trade barriers):

German Marshall Fund Tracks Obama-McCain Trade Debate

The German Marshall Fund of the U.S. has set up a web page to track the trade debate in the U.S. Presidential elections: Debate Tracker: Trade. This is one of several similar "debate trackers" on other issues. Some are already up and running, others, including one on immigration, are planned.  There's some background information here, and "one-stop" shopping to a variety of links to stories and analysis.

Why do Congresspersons vote for or against fast track?

Paola Conconi, Giovanni Facchini, and Maurizio Zanardi look at the determinants of Congressional votes for and against fast track and trade promotion authority:   Fast track authority: trade policy or politics? (May 21, 2008,VOX, this is a summary of a working paper to which they link):

A Choice, Not An Echo

And then there were two: John McCain and Barack Obama. 

They differ on many things, including trade.  Simon Lester at the International Economic Law and Policy Blog is examining their contrasting positions in a series of posts.  He's collecting these in a new Obama vs McCain '08 category.